The Chicago Cubs face their I-94 rival Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field for a 2:20 p.m. ET matinee on Saturday. The Cubs are -160 on the money line, meaning it would take a $160 bet on Chicago to win to return $100. Conversely, a $100 wager on the Brewers would net $144 with a win.
Milwaukee sends Junior Guerra and his minuscule 0.56 ERA to the hill, while Chicago counters with struggling former All-Star Jose Quintana (7.78 ERA).
Before you make a pick for either side, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. The advanced computer entered Thursday's play on an 11-5 money line run for an astonishing 69 percent cash rate.
Now, it has simulated Saturday's game 10,000 times, breaking down every conceivable at-bat to produce a strong money line pick.
The computer has factored in the amazing season thus far for Guerra. The Triple-A callup has allowed just one earned run over 15.1 innings pitched with a 2-0 record in three starts.
If there's one issue with Guerra, it's the tight leash he's been given by manager Craig Counsell. Guerra has yet to get out of the sixth inning, with 78 to 93 pitches thrown when yanked.
Quintana has had four starts, and three of them went very poorly. The one exception: On April 8, he tossed six scoreless innings in a victory over these Brewers.
Chicago's pitchers rank ninth in the NL in ERA (4.06), but the offense has carried the way. Javier Baez has a team-high seven HR and 24 RBI, even as Kris Bryant (.319 average, .467 OBP) remains day-to-day after a beanball to the head on Sunday.
The Cubs have won three of four over the Brewers going into Friday's matchup. Overall, Milwaukee is 9-4 on the road, while Chicago is 3-4 at Wrigley.
Is there value in taking Guerra and the underdog Brewers, or is it Cubbies all the way? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Brewers-Cubs money line has very strong value, all from the computer model on a 69 percent cash rate on money line picks.
