The Arizona Diamondbacks have some life in the National League Championship Series. Thanks to Ketel Marte's walk-off single, the D-backs beat the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 on Thursday night. The final score was 2-1 (box score). Philadelphia still has a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series, though Arizona avoided the dreaded 3-0 deficit. It's a series now.
Game 3 was scoreless through six innings -- starters Brandon Pfaadt and Ranger Suárez were both terrific -- and tied 1-1 through eight innings. Both teams wasted prime run-scoring opportunities in the late innings before the D-backs built their game-winning rally against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth. Marte's third hit of the game was a walk-off single.
Here are our takeaways from Game 3 of the NLCS.
After dropping Games 1 and 2 behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the D-backs had basically no path to an NLCS comeback without getting a dominant start from Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt delivered in Game 3. The rookie right-hander struck out a career high nine in 5 2/3 scoreless innings, his longest outing since Sept. 27. He held the Phillies to one double and one single.
On Wednesday, D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he was hoping to get 18 batters from Pfaadt -- two times through the order -- and that's exactly what he got. Lovullo pulled Pfaadt after only 70 pitches and two quick outs to begin the sixth, and the Chase Field crowd greeted the manager with boos. Understandable, right? Pfaadt was dealing!
That said, Arizona's season was essentially on the line in Game 3, and numbers support the decision. Opposing hitters hammered Pfaadt the third time through the order during the regular season. The numbers:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|
1st time thru order | 171 | .276/.304/.460 | 28.1% |
2nd time thru order | 168 | .243/.323/.520 | 21.4% |
3rd time thru order | 82 | .373/.390/.720 | 12.2% |
I have to say, I wouldn't have let Pfaadt face Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper a third time either. Not in October and not when I'm down 2-0 in the series. A pitcher is dealing right up until he isn't. Lovullo went to lefty Andrew Saalfrank, who walked Schwarber (groan) before getting Turner to ground out to end the sixth inning.
Regardless of what you think about the decision to pull him, Pfaadt was outstanding in Game 3. The Phillies swung at 36 of his 70 pitches and missed 17 times, or 47%. That's top of the line, even in an individual game. They missed with nine of their 18 swings against his fastball. Pfaadt was dominant. He gave the D-backs exactly what they needed in Game 3.
Credit to Phillies starter Ranger Suárez too. He matched Pfaadt pitch-for-pitch and held Arizona scoreless in his 5 1/3 innings. Suárez now has a 0.94 ERA in 28 2/3 career postseason innings. That is the best ERA in history among players with at least five career postseason starts, narrowly ahead of Hall of Famers Sandy Koufax (0.95 ERA) and Christy Mathewson (1.06 ERA).
Somewhat quietly, Ketel Marte has been one of the most productive players in baseball this postseason. He went 3 for 5 with two doubles in Game 3 and provided the walk-off single against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning. Arizona had a runner thrown out at the plate earlier in the inning and was in danger of blowing another golden opportunity, but Marte came through.
That's the first walk-off of this postseason and the first postseason walk-off since Game 3 of last year's American League Division Series, when Oscar Gonzalez of the Cleveland Guardians shot a walk-off single back up the middle against the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the Division Series.
Getting back to Marte, he is 6 for 13 (.462) three games into the NLCS. The rest of the D-backs are 11 for 81 (.136). Marte has been a one-man army. Also, he's hit safely in his 12 career postseason games. That's the third longest postseason hitting streak to begin a career in history. The leaderboard:
During the regular season Marte, who turned only 30 last week, hit .276/.358/.485 with 25 home runs and a 16.8% strikeout rate that was far better than the 22.7% league average. The D-backs convinced him to sign a five-year, $76 million extension in March 2022. What a bargain. Marte is one of the most underrated players in the game and one of the best this October.
Granted, the Phillies still have a 2-1 series lead, and teams with a 2-1 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 70% of the time. The D-backs now have life though. They will go with a bullpen game in Game 4, and while that can be scary, it does allow for optimal matchups in every inning (in theory, anyway). The Phillies will start lefty Cristopher Sánchez in Game 4. He has not appeared in a game since Sept. 30.
Arizona trims the Phillies' lead in the best-of-seven series to 3-1 with a 2-1 walk-off win. Ketel Marte notched the winning hit off Craig Kimbel in the bottom of the ninth. Game 4 will be on Friday back at Chase Field.
The bases are full of Diamondbacks with one out. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll are up. Couldn't be set up any better. Gotta cash in.
Bohm looked at like five strikes in that at-bat. Sewald finally gets a call and we're going to the bottom of the ninth tied 1-1.
Harper steals second this time. Nevermind!
Harper has taken off a few times on a foul ball. It would be interesting if Bohm happened to put one toward the gaps with Harper running.
Throwing out Trea Turner on a three-hopper to third is a tall order, but Emmanuel Rivera did just that.
Paul Sewald is in. He and Pfaadt have the same kinda funky low arm slot and release point. Guys like this tend to get huge induced vertical break on their fastball, which in English means a lot of life up in the zone.
If the D-backs win, it will be the first walk-off of the postseason.
.620 expected batting average on that loud out from Corbin Carroll.
In addition to things like "the Phillies have a deeper bullpen and better relievers left," the D-backs have the top of their order coming up here in the bottom of the eighth. The Phillies have the top of their order due in the ninth. Not scoring here makes for a scary ninth. A run here and they'll have a shot to close down Game 3 with closer Paul Sewald.
It was indeed a great one -- infield in and looking back the runner at third:
He entered a tie game with runners on first and third and nobody out. He threw three pitches and got out of it unscathed.
Bryce Harper landed at first in a desperate attempt to get back on the field as quickly as possible after his Tommy John surgery and has done nothing but hold his own. That pick on a short hop was tough.
With the infield pulled in, a grounder is hit to Trea Turner, he looks the runner back to third, then throws to second and it is turned into a double play.
You don't see many double plays with the infield in.
As noted on the broadcast, that was the first Diamondbacks run in 17 innings.
The Phillies' 1-0 lead in Game 3 was short-lived, as the Diamondbacks pushed across their first run of Game 3 a mere half-inning later. Tommy Pham set the table with a lead-off single, and he was lifted for pinch-hitter Alek Thomas. Then Lourdes Gurriel pulled an RBI double down the line to tie it up:
Needless to say, that's a timely counterpunch for Arizona, who can't afford to go down 0-3 in this series.
Can't keep throwing sliders up there, Orion. Three hits that inning, all on hanging sliders.
Gurriel hits a hard grounder down the third-base line and it scores the nimble Thomas from first. It's 1-1, just like that.
Tommy Pham hits a liner to center/right-center and he's been pinch run for with Alek Thomas. Pham stole 22 bases this season, so it's funny to see him lifted for a pinch runner, but Thomas is definitely faster.
Game 3 of the NLCS remains a pitchers' duel between the Phillies and D-backs. In the top of the seventh, the first run of the game came on a wild pitch from Arizona reliever Ryan Thompson that allowed Bryce Harper to scurry home from third:
The low arm angle giveth, just as it occasionally taketh away. That run was especially painful for the D-backs as it came just moments after a double play put them in position to get out of what had been a two-on-no-outs jam. Instead, it's a 1-0 Phillies lead, and that comes to a 65.8% chance for Philly to take a 3-0 edge in the series.
These are just impossible comparisons
This feels like a "first team to homer wins" game.
Star on your scorecard indeed:
A grounder to the right side from speedster Corbin Carroll ends in a 4-1 putout at first base. Bryson Stott made a diving stab and pitcher Ranger Suarez (Bryce Harper had dove for the ball that was between first and second) beat Carroll to first while catching the toss from Stott.
On the Diamondbacks' side, though, it gets the go-ahead run to third base with less than two outs. A productive out puts the Snakes on top.
Veteran star Ketel Marte with a shot to the gap that could well end up being a difference maker.
Perhaps a combination of the present and future there, with two rookies combining to get the three outs in the sixth for Arizona. Again, brilliant outing from Pfaadt, even if he won't come away with the individual victory (which doesn't really matter all that much anyway, as it's a totally outdated and overrated stat).
Just wanted to point out that this is an IU vs. IU matchup (Saalfrank vs. Schwarber)
And to Dayn's point, the managers who get remembered are almost always the ones who pull their guy too early (Kevin Cash will never live down taking out Blake Snell in 2020).
Pfaadt's final line: 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K
That's an ace outing for the rookie and is the best game of his life to this point. The future is bright here and it's easy to envision him joining Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to give the Diamondbacks three frontline starters next season.
What matters now is his teammates winning the game, though. Pfaadt did all he could.
