Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds
Getty Images

This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.

All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Reds at Tigers, 6:40 p.m. | Watch live:

  • The Pick: Reds +115
  • Key trend: The Tigers are 3-9 in their last 12 games against teams other than the White Sox.

Simply put, there's a lot more on the line for Cincinnati right now than Detroit, and even though it appears as if the Tigers have been playing well of late, in this case, the numbers do lie. The Tigers have lost nine of their last 12 meetings against opponents that are not the pitiful 56-89 White Sox (sorry, Tom). In fact, the only reasons Detroit is favored tonight are likely because they home team and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is on the mound.

Rodriguez is playing well enough, but he boasts a pedestrian 4.31 ERA since July 5, and he's hardly valuable enough as a starter to make the Tigers a favorite against a Reds team that is simply better in most phases. Plus, Detroit is 31-42 at home this season, while Cincinnati is 39-32 on the road, so it's not like there's a particular homefield advantage at play Wedneday night.

While righty Connor Phillips struggled when he made his MLB debut for Cincinnati against the Mariners, here he's going up against a far worse offensive team in a much better pitching environment than the Great American Ball Park. Let's stick with the contenders to win two straight in Detroit.

👀 Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has a moderate grade on the straight up battle.

💰 The Picks

MLB: San Diego Padres at Houston Astros

Padres at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. | TV: MLB Network

  • The Pick: Blake Snell Over 3.5 Walks (+140)
  • Key trend: Snell leads MLB with 92 walks this season.

Not only does Padres starter Blake Snell lead the majors in walks this late in the season, he's going up against a Dodgers team Wednesday night that leads MLB in walk rate. Seems like a bit of kismet, no?

Snell has walked 11 total batters in three starts against the Dodgers so far this year (3.7 per game) and is averaging 4.0 walks across his last 10 starts (4.4 in his last five road starts). He's also not shy about walking good hitters. "I don't look at them as a bad thing," Snell said of walks last week.

Getting plus money on a pitcher who doesn't care about walking batters and has a propensity to do so -- against a team that walks in abundance -- that's a definite play.

2023 Fortinet Championship, Thursday-Sunday | TV: Golf Channel

  • The Pick: Max Homa (7-1)
  • Key trend: Homa has won this tournament the last two seasons.

The inaugural FedEx Cup Fall series begins this week with the Fortinet Championship, the lone event between the end of the 2022-23 regular season and the Ryder Cup at the end of this month. Though the field is not particularly deep, two names stand out from it: Max Homa and Justin Thomas.

Homa is looking to win three straight at the Silverado Resort and Spa, just a stone's throw -- OK, maybe a fit further than that -- from his home in California. He has been stellar each of the last two seasons on the North Course and enters riding a hot hand with career-best numbers in most strokes gained categories as last season closed. He's putting better than basically anyone else in the field, too. While Thomas is looking to use the Fortinet as a "get right" tournament before he represents the United States in the Ryder Cup, it is Homa coming in seeking the win. These may not be the richest odds in the field, but it's a good wager on the most talented golf -- at least based on his current level of play -- in the field.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: If you're looking for a little more baseball action, the Projection Model has an A-graded play on Braves at Phillies tonight.