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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
MLB Home Run Derby, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- Key Trend: Guerrero hits the crap out of the ball.
- The Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win (+400)
The most important thing to remember before betting the Home Run Derby is that nobody knows what will happen. There is no science to an event like this, particularly when the event's format changes as often as MLB's Home Run Derby has. Plus, how do you handicap which hitters are more likely to hit the requisite requirements for added time and so forth? You can't. You're reduced to figuring out which guy you think can hit the ball hard and far the most often.
Now, having said all this, there are certainly some things you can look for in finding a player. Vladimir Guerrero Jr's average exit velocity of 94.3 mph ranks sixth in MLB and is the highest of anybody in the Derby. Vlad's hard-hit rate of 56.3% ranks seventh and is the highest of anybody in the Derby. His barrel rate of 10.2% ranks 13th and trails only Adolis Garcia (10.7%) among Derby participants.
The problem Vlad has had this season, and the reason he has only 13 dingers heading into the break this year after hitting 80 over the last two seasons, is he isn't elevating the ball enough in games. However, four of Vlad's 13 dingers have come in the last 15 games, and he has an OPS of .881 in that span. He's elevating the ball more lately, and you know how there was always the concern about players "ruining" their swing by participating in the Derby? Well, I think doing this could fix Vlad's swing.
Plus, while he hasn't won a Derby yet, we know Vlad can put on a show in these events. He holds the record for most dingers in a round (40 in 2019) and the most overall in a single derby (91 in 2019). That was the last time he participated, and I genuinely believe one of his motivating factors to return this year is to fix his swing.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: If you want more on tonight's Home Run Derby, SportsLine's Larry Hartstein has shared his thoughts too.
💰 More MLB picks
The Pick: Adolis Garcia to win the Home Run Derby (+750) -- This is more of a longshot play than Vlad, but I like Garcia for many of the same reasons I like Vladdy. He hits the ball hard, and he hits it far. His barrel rate of 10.7% is higher than anybody else in the field, and he catches a bit of a break in the bracket.
I'm not taking Randy Arozarena lightly, as he's capable of beating Garcia (again, there's a lot of random noise in an event like this) and moving on, but I don't think it's a bad matchup for Garcia. Also, looking at the odds at Caesars Sportsbook, Pete Alonso, Julio Rodriguez and Vlad Guerrero are the three favorites in this competition, and all three are on the other side of the bracket. That means Garcia won't face any of them unless he gets to the final, and a second-round matchup against Luis Robert or Adley Rutschman isn't terrifying, either.
⚾ MLB All Star Game
American vs. National, Tuesday, 8 p.m. | TV: Fox
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) -- I bet the under in the All-Star Game every year, and there's a reason for it. Unlike other All-Star Games, baseball's is played with the same level of effort as a regular season game because it's kind of hard to play the sport at half-speed. So every one of the best pitchers in the league is playing, and since none of them have to go long, they're giving max effort for an inning.
They're damn near impossible to hit, no matter how good the hitters are. That's why we've seen an average of 6.75 runs scored in the last 16 All-Star Games, with 11 of those 16 games finishing with seven runs or fewer.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Scottish Open serves as a warm-up for next week's British Open, and there's no reason you shouldn't use it as a gambling warm-up for yourself.
