Daniel Suarez led 58 laps and finished in fourth place in last year's dirt track race at Bristol Motor Speedway. He is priced as a 20-1 long shot in the latest 2022 Food City Dirt Race odds at Caesars Sportsbook. This will be the second ever trip to Bristol for a dirt race and the first at night for the NASCAR Cup Series. It is also the first dirt race using the "Next-Gen" car, so there are plenty of unusual variables at play.

How heavily should last year's results be weighed when digging into the odds for this year's race? Kyle Larson is the 7-2 favorite, while Christopher Bell is 8-1. Before scouring the 2022 NASCAR Bristol Dirt Race starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 Food City Dirt Race picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 12-7 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Then last month it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR Bristol Dirt race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Food City Dirt Race leaderboard.

Top 2022 Food City Bristol Dirt Race predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he's a 16-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Reddick began proving himself in dirt races early in his career, winning the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series event at just 15 years old, becoming the youngest driver to do so.

He put together a nice ride at this race last year, finishing in seventh place. Reddick has also had a solid 2022 season thus far, finishing inside the top five at Phoenix Raceway and the Circuit of the Americas. His current form and dirt-track experience makes him a great option as a 16-1 long shot.

And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 Food City Dirt Race starting grid. The 41-year-old won the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series championship and he's become a fixture in victory lane late in his career, capturing 28 of his 31 career Cup wins over the last six seasons.

However, Truex is coming off an extremely disappointing 22nd-place run at Martinsville and he finished 19th on the dirt in Bristol after leading 126 laps last season. Truex only has four top-10 finishes now in 32 career Cup starts at Bristol Motor Speedway (dirt or asphalt).

How to make 2022 NASCAR Bristol picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Bristol odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Food City Dirt Race 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Food City Dirt Race leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 Food City Dirt Race odds

Kyle Larson 7-2
Christopher Bell 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
William Byron 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Chase Briscoe 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Kyle Busch 14-1
Tyler Reddick 16-1
Alex Bowman 17-1
Ross Chastain 20-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Austin Dillon 45-1
Kurt Busch 45-1
Brad Keselowski 60-1
Bubba Wallace 75-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Austin Cindric 75-1
Justin Haley 75-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Cole Custer 75-1
Aric Almirola 150-1
Noah Gragson 150-1
Todd Gilliland 250-1
Harrison Burton 250-1
Ty Dillon 250-1
JJ Yeley 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
Josh Williams 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1