Kyle Larson NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas
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The 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 keeps the NASCAR Cup Series going on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Kyle Larson is the favorite to take the NASCAR Phoenix trophy according to the latest NASCAR odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The defending Cup Series champ is 9-2 to win Sunday's race and increase his season wins total to two. Larson came up short last week at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Pennzoil 400, as Alex Bowman fended off his Hendrick Motorsports teammate in a down-to-the-wire overtime finish.

Will Larson reclaim the throne or will we see another new face capture their first victory of the season at NASCAR in Phoenix? Before scouring the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout.

It also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it called five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has nailed all seven of its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 NASCAR season. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on its NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR Phoenix race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on William Byron, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. In his fifth season as a Cup Series driver, Byron showed impressive potential last week in a fifth-place finish at Las Vegas.

Byron ended the 2021 season on a heater, with three top-six finishes in the final four races. While he finished in the 30s at Daytona and Fontana to start the season, that fifth-place finish last week could be a sign of success to come.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this open 2022 NASCAR at Phoenix starting grid. The 26-year-old has made the playoffs six times already in his career with 13 wins and a championship, but over half those wins have come on road courses.

Traditional ovals have been a challenge for Elliott. He won his championship at Phoenix in 2020, but that was the only time he finished better than fifth in his last seven starts there. This season, he hasn't finished higher than ninth and he's only led in one race.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Phoenix picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR Phoenix odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500? And which long shots makes a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR in Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds

Kyle Larson 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Chase Elliott 7-1
Kyle Busch 15-2
Joey Logano 8-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
William Byron 15-1
Kevin Harvick 17-1
Alex Bowman 17-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Brad Keselowski 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Austin Cindric 40-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Ross Chastain 50-1
Erik Jones 60-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Bubba Wallace 150-1
A.J. Allmendinger 200-1
Justin Haley 250-1
Harrison Burton 300-1
Chris Buescher 300-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1