LeBron James can be convincing, in life and in art. Such as that scene in Trainwreck, where he tries to sway Bill Hader's character into believing that Cleveland and Miami are equally attractive cities to visit, and that he can't afford all of a $65 lunch check because this basketball thing might not work out.
His powers of persuasion have had their limits, however.
In 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016, he hasn't been able to win over enough MVP voters, even as his teams -- twice the Heat and twice the Cavaliers -- were winning 58, 54, 53 and 57 games. Instead, the award went to Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Stephen Curry again and, while James was largely gracious publicly, he stewed not-so-silently.
Most recently, in mid-May, James said of Curry's unanimous selection: "I think sometimes the word 'valuable' or best player of the year, you can have different results. You know, that's not taking anything from anyone that's ever won the award.'"
James, if he were being totally truthful, would tell you this: He believes that these honors have been taken from him, and that he's been deserving of more than the four MVP trophies he's received. He's probably right about one of the snubs -- I've regretted my vote for Rose in 2010-11, since I didn't account sufficiently for the point guard's defensive and efficiency deficiencies. It's harder to argue with the accolades for Durant and Curry. Nor has James been entirely ignored; he finished third, second, third and third in the four aforementioned seasons.
The real question was whether he would ever win MVP again.
Roughly 14 months ago, I came to the conclusion that it would be increasingly challenging for him as the years progressed.
Now I've changed my mind.
First, let's review the logic that led to my skepticism about his chances.
At the time, 47 of the 60 awards had been given to players still in their 20s. Now, after Curry won again, it's 48 of 61. James certainly is capable of countering that trend; he's an all-time peer with the nine thirtysomethings who have broken through (Karl Malone, Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Julius Erving, Hakeem Olajuwon, Bill Russell, Steve Nash and Wilt Chamberlain). And Nash and Chamberlain did it twice.
So, even then, I believed he could do it, for sure, especially with the way he maintains his body. But he had other factors working against him. For starters, media and public fatigue. That cost Michael Jordan during his career -- think Karl Malone -- and was clearly starting to cost James as his greatness was taken for granted, as he competed against his own historical statlines. In the ongoing search for the next "it" guy, voters could become blind to the self-proclaimed King.
And James appeared to be making that negligence easier. He wasn't as consistently dominant on defense. Increasingly, he was seeming to be using the regular season simply to establish his mental and emotional and physical state for the playoffs, which even meant taking a couple of weeks off in 2014-15 to recharge. That eliminated any chance for him to edge Curry even in a circumstance in which players typically get a voter bump -- when they are primarily responsible for a team's victory spike (the Cavaliers jumped from 33 to 53 after he re-joined them).
The Cavaliers jumped just four victories last season, to 57.
They aren't likely to jump another six or eight or 10 wins next season.
So what's different now?
Why does James look like a solid bet for MVP next season, even if most of the sports books have him third behind Russell Westbrook and Curry?
Well, fatigue has given way to fawning. James didn't just outplay Curry in the NBA Finals for a second straight June; he made the Warriors guard appear careless and hapless by comparison, particularly in the last three games. It's increasingly difficult to deny someone who, when engaged, is still undeniably the world's best player. Now it's Curry, not James, who will be forced to top his own spectacular regular seasons, and to do so with the backdrop that he's been far less stellar when it's mattered most, in the two series against James' squad.
Further, now Curry will be joined by Durant, splitting shots and spotlight, which will likely reduce their scoring statistics -- if Durant's less so because he left the high-usage Westbrook -- and their other counting statistics as well, since the Warriors may not need to play either in many fourth quarters. Plus, it may become impossible to determine the degree to which each is valuable to a team that seems unfairly loaded.
So, yes, it's Westbrook who has emerged as James' primary competition. But only if Westbrook can push the Thunder to a top-four spot in the West. Plus, Westbrook's prickly attitude with the press won't help, whereas James has regained his favored status since honoring his promises to Cleveland. James hasn't taken heat for anything of late, not even skipping the Olympics. In fact, his absence, and the U.S. team's ordinary play, has only illustrated his importance.
So, no, Cleveland isn't Miami, not even when the sun dares to show up.
And no, James won't go broke by picking up a two-man lunch tab.
But MVP?
He'll have a convincing case going forward.
