Best bets for a full NBA slate and a Big Ten hoops battle in Ann Arbor

Getty Images

Happy Wednesday, dearest reader. I hope this newsletter finds you well. If you missed it earlier today, we had some of the least-surprising breaking news of all time: Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence declared for the NFL Draft.

I'll allow you a moment to pick your jaw off the floor.

Considering that he's likely to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft this spring, it's the only logical move. Even if it means having to play in Jacksonville, but, to be fair, I'd rather be a Jaguar than a Jet. Not only for the weather and lack of state income tax, but because that roster seems closer to competent than New York's does. Still, as hyped as Lawrence is, I'm interested in seeing how the draft process goes for him.

The NFL draft machine loves to chew prospects up and spit them out. After spending the last three years telling everyone how Lawrence is the perfect QB and will be a franchise-changer, they'll now begin the process of picking his game apart. And I have to say, as somebody who has watched Lawrence closely, he's not the perfect player. There are deficiencies, but the one thing that always struck me is how calm he looks in the pocket during the biggest moments. When it comes to those big moments in games, the absolute must-have plays, there's just an eerie calmness about him in the pocket.

He's not a sure-thing in the NFL -- no QB is, no matter how hyped they are -- but I have a hard time thinking of a college QB I've had more confidence in over the last 15 years.

And now, the money. Let us acquire some.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

No. 16 Minnesota at No. 10 Michigan, 8:30 p.m. | TV: Big Ten Network
The Pick: Michigan -7.5 (-110): Minnesota is off to a terrific start to the season. Not many would have pegged the Gophers as a threat in the Big Ten this year with all the roster turnover and transfers, but we sit here with the Gophers at 10-2 and ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll. But, as pleasant a surprise it's been -- notably their overtime win over Iowa -- the two losses are what stand out to me more than anything.

Check out more experts picks on The Early Edge podcast -- download and subscribe on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or listen below:

Both losses came in the only two road games the Gophers have played this season. They went on the road to face Illinois and lost by 27. In Madison against Wisconsin, they lost by 12. Now they're back on the road against an excellent Michigan team with one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Until the Gophers show me that they're the same team on the road as they are at home, I'm going to have a difficult time trusting them.

Key Trend: Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Make sure to check out what the Advanced Computer Model and SportsLine's experts have to say about this game.

💰 The Picks

🏀 College Basketball

Arkansas at No. 9 Tennessee, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN2
The Pick: Arkansas +8.5 (-110) -- This one is pretty simple for me, as it strikes me as one of those times when one team is being overvalued because it's ranked in the top 10, while the opponent isn't ranked at all. Don't get me wrong, Tennessee is very good. The Vols are 7-1 and one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They just don't strike me as a dominant team. They move too slowly, and they had trouble dealing with Alabama's up-tempo offense in a 71-63 loss over the weekend.

Tonight they're facing an Arkansas team that is a lot like the Alabama team that just beat them and is 9-1 itself. I'm not ready to say the Hogs get an upset win like the Tide did, but they're going to make this one uncomfortable.

Key Trend: Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record.

🏀 NBA

Wizards at 76ers, 7 p.m. | TV: League Pass
The Pick: Wizards +6.5 (-110) -- It should come as no surprise that, with Doc Rivers is in charge, the Sixers are a terrific defensive team. It's early in the year, but they're currently ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and there's a significant margin between them and Cleveland in second place. What concerns me about the Sixers in this spot is that, offensively, they're not great. They rank 16th in the league in offensive efficiency, and tonight they're facing a Washington team ranked 10th. The Wizards defense isn't good, but I think Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal will pose problems for the Sixers tonight.

Key Trend: The Wizards have covered in four of the last five meetings.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Consummate golf stats expert Sal Johnson showed an uncanny knack for picking long shots last year and he knows just what it takes at Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

💸 The DFS Rundown

Star Plays

PG: Trae Young, Hawks
SG: Paul George, Clippers
SF: Brandon Ingram, Pelicans
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C: Joel Embiid, Sixers

Value Plays

PG: Lou Williams, Clippers
SG: Buddy Hield, Kings
SF: Kelly Oubre, Warriors
PF: Nicolas Batum, Clippers
C: Mitchell Robinson, Knicks

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.