Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks are just one victory away from a title. The Bucks took control of the 2021 NBA Finals with a road win on Saturday, knocking off the Phoenix Suns in Game 5. Milwaukee now leads 3-2 in the series, and the Bucks host Game 6 on Tuesday. The Suns must win to avoid elimination, and the Bucks can close things out with a win in a game in which they are favored.
William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bucks as five-point home favorites, holding steady from the opening line, for this 9 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 222 in the latest Bucks vs. Suns odds. Before finalizing any Suns vs. Bucks picks or NBA Finals 2021 predictions, you need to see what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.
Hartstein, who is a regular on The Early Edge podcast, is a blistering 61-35 on his last 96 ATS NBA picks involving the Suns, a stretch that has made $100 bettors almost $2,300. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.
- Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5
- Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 220.5 points
- Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -190, Suns +105
- PHX: The Suns are 6-3 against the spread in the last nine road games
- MIL: The Bucks are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven home games
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, and that has been on display in both the playoffs and the regular season. The Suns shot 55 percent from the floor and 13 of 19 from 3-point range in Game 5, scoring nearly 1.3 points per possession in the process. While that is an outlier for any team, it isn't a wild one for Phoenix. The Suns boast a 60.4 percent true shooting mark in the NBA Finals 2021, shooting 50 percent from the floor, 41 percent from 3-point range and 86 percent from the free-throw line in the series.
For the full playoffs, Phoenix maintains a stellar 58.8 percent true shooting mark, and the Suns also finished in the top two in field- goal percentage (49.0 percent) and free-throw percentage (83.4 percent) during the regular season. Chris Paul and Devin Booker draw rave reviews for their offensive prowess, and both stars are capable of exploding. However, the Suns also have sharp-shooting supporting players in Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson, and Phoenix has found success, even against Milwaukee's standout defense.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee has found its shooting stride in the last three games, leading to an uptick in overall success offensively. The Bucks are scoring well over 1.2 points per possession during this three-game winning streak, and Milwaukee connected on 58 percent of its shot attempts and 50 percent of its 3-pointers in the Game 5 road win. Dating back to the regular season, Milwaukee has been a potent offensive club and, while their defense has carried the day in the postseason, the Bucks are more than capable of regular eruptions offensively.
Milwaukee finished as a top-five regular season offense, scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks were also a top-five team in field-goal percentage (48.7 percent) and 3-point percentage (38.9 percent) over a large sample. Throw in elite offensive rebounding, including more than 31 percent during this winning streak, and tremendous defense and the recipe for Milwaukee's success comes to the surface with vigor.
How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks
Hartstein is leaning under on the point total for Game 6 of the 2021 NBA Finals. He also has isolated a critical x-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. He's sharing those NBA Finals 2021 picks only at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Suns Game 6? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.