NBA playoff picture, standings, magic numbers, potential matchups: Thunder, Spurs among West teams in sticky spot

The Western Conference playoff race is completely crazy at this point. With five days left in the regular season, seeds 4-9 are separated by two losses, seeds 5-9 by just one loss, and seeds 5-7 are deadlocked. Here is what you need to know about who stands where with what left as we try to clear up the Western Conference playoff picture entering Saturday, April 7.

NOTES: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

Already clinched

Houston Rockets (No. 1 seed)

The Rockets are locked into the No. 1 seed with home-court advantage clinched through the Finals should they make it there. Now, they just wait to see who they'll face in the first round with the West's No. 8 seed still completely up in the air. If seeds hold, Houston would get Minnesota in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (No. 2 seed)

The Warriors are locked into the No. 2 seed, and like Houston, are merely waiting to see who they will play in the first round. If seeds hold, Golden State will see No. 7 OKC in the first round, and what a matchup that would be with Stephen Curry likely not able to play.

Fighting for No. 3 seed

Portland Trail Blazers (No. 3 seed)

Portland is close to locking the No. 3 seed, but it's not a done deal. Entering Saturday, the Blazers hold a two-game lead in the loss column over the No. 4 Jazz, but Utah plays Portland on the final night of the season, making that two-game leap a lot more doable. The Blazers have three very tough games to close the season, all against teams in a fight for their own playoff lives. Technically, the Blazers haven't locked a top-four seed yet.

Magic number to clinch No. 3 seed: Two
Magic number to clinch top-four seed: One
Remaining games: at San Antonio, at Denver, vs. Utah
SportsLine projection: 95 percent to secure top-four seed

Utah Jazz (No. 4 seed)

Utah has won four straight and, as mentioned above, still has shot at the No. 3 seed. Down two losses entering Saturday, if the Jazz can get that number to one, they play the Blazers on the final night of the season, and a win would give Utah the higher seed as it would own the tiebreaker. That said, Utah is is also separated by just one loss from the No. 7 seed and two losses from potentially being out of the playoffs altogether.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Two
Games remaining: at Lakers, vs. Warriors, at Blazers
SportsLine projection: 49 percent to get top-four seed

New Orleans Pelicans (No. 5 seed)

New Orleans is tied in the loss column with No. 6 San Antonio and No. 7 Oklahoma City, but it owns the tiebreaker over both. The Pelicans have a tough road coming down the stretch, and the bad news is they are just one loss up on No. 8 Minnesota and No. 9 Denver, and both those teams hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans. Bottom line, the Pels are the No. 5 seed as of Saturday but could still miss the playoffs if they lose two of their final three.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Two
Remaining games: at Golden State, at Clippers, vs. Spurs
SportsLine projection: 82 percent to make playoffs; seven percent to get top-four seed

San Antonio Spurs (No. 6 seed)

The Spurs have lost four of six and are just one loss up on the No. 9 Nuggets. The own the tiebreaker over the No. 8 Wolves. The tiebreaker with No. 9 Denver is still up in the air. Looking upward, San Antonio is still in play for a top-four seed, trailing the No. 4 Jazz by just one in the loss column.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Two
Remaining games: vs. Portland, vs. Sacramento, at New Orleans
SportsLine: 58.9 percent to make playoffs

Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 7 seed)

Like San Antonio, OKC is just one loss back of No. 4 Utah, and it holds the tiebreaker vs. Utah. The Thunder are also just one loss up on No. 9 Denver, and in that case, the Nuggets own the tiebreaker. This is nuts, but with five days to go the Thunder could end up with home-court advantage in the first round ... or miss the playoffs entirely.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Two
Games remaining: at Houston, at Miami, vs. Memphis
SportsLine: 81.5 percent to make playoffs; eight percent to get top-four seed

Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 8 seed)

The Wolves are tied in the loss column with the No. 9 Nuggets, and those two play each other on the final night of the season. If they both take care of business between now and then, we could very likely have a one-game playoff for the final postseason spot, depending on what happens with, you know, the other three teams within one game of Denver and Minnesota. Wild enough for you?

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Three
Remaining games: vs. Memphis, vs. Denver
SportsLine: 89.3 percent to make playoffs

Outside looking in

Denver Nuggets (No. 9 seed)

Denver knocked off Minnesota on Thursday to set up a lot of this race-for-No. 8 madness. The Nuggets will have a much harder road getting to that potential last-night-of-the-season showdown unscathed then the Wolves; take a look at Denver's remaining schedule below -- with all those opponents still having something to play for themselves. A win over the Clippers on Saturday would completely eliminate L.A. from the minuscule chance it has right now of creeping in. For Denver, it's all about getting to Wednesday night with a play-in shot vs. Minnesota.