The Detroit Lions will try to take advantage of the Kansas City Chiefs' misfortunes when they visit the reigning Super Bowl champions on Thursday in the 2023 NFL Kickoff Game. Detroit (9-8) won eight of its final 10 games last year, but is winless in its last five season-openers, going 0-4-1. However, the Lions will be facing a Chiefs team that is missing defensive tackle Chris Jones, who matched his career high with 15.5 sacks in 2022 but is holding out for a new contract. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is also out with a knee injury.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Lions odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 53. Before locking in any Lions vs. Chiefs picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Lions 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Lions vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Lions spread: Kansas City -4.5
- Chiefs vs. Lions over/under: 53 points
- Chiefs vs. Lions money line: Kansas City -225, Detroit +185
- KC: Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in an NFL-record seven straight season-openers
- DET: Lions have lost seven consecutive meetings with defending Super Bowl champions
- Chiefs vs. Lions picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Chiefs can cover
The Lions made offseason moves to help improve a defense that was last in the NFL in total yards allowed last year and near the bottom in points permitted. Regardless of the upgrades, it could be difficult for them to shut down a Chiefs team that led the league in total offense (413.6 yards per game) and scoring (29.2 points). Kansas City also had the top passing attack in 2022, when it averaged 297.8 yards through the air.
That should come as no surprise since the offense was led by Patrick Mahomes, the first player in NFL history to lead the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdown tosses (41) while winning both the regular-season and Super Bowl MVP honors. The 27-year-old set the franchise record for passing yards in a season and the NFL mark for total yards in a campaign by a quarterback (5,608). Mahomes is 5-0 in season-openers as he has recorded 1,542 passing yards with 18 TDs and no interceptions, throwing at least three scoring passes in each contest. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Lions can cover
Detroit, which was 9-1 against the spread last season, did a strong job protecting Jared Goff, as the 28-year-old quarterback was sacked only 23 times, four over his last five games. With Jones not around to pressure him, Goff has a chance to pick up where he left off in 2022. The first overall pick of the 2016 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams, Goff threw 15 touchdown passes without an interception over his final nine contests last season and enters this campaign with a streak of 324 consecutive pass attempts without being picked off.
Goff will try to connect often with receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who led the Lions with 106 receptions, 1,161 receiving yards and six TD catches during his second NFL campaign. The 23-year-old wideout has 196 receptions since being selected in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, the most through two seasons in team history. On the other side of the ball, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson looks to build off a rookie campaign during which he became the first player since Richard Dent in 1990 to record at least 9.5 sacks and three interceptions in a season. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Chiefs vs. Lions picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under the total, projecting the teams combine for 53 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks.
So who wins Chiefs vs. Lions in the NFL Kickoff Game 2023, and which side of the spread cashes well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lions vs. Chiefs spread to back, all from the model that has returned more than $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
