2018 NHL playoffs, Capitals vs. Lightning Game 1: Expert on 21-9 run releases Eastern Conference finals picks

David Kelly has his finger on the pulse of the Capitals and locked in a pick for Game 1

The Capitals and Lightning meet in Game 1 the NHL's Eastern Conference finals Friday. Tampa Bay is -175 on the money line, meaning you would need to risk $175 to win $100, while Washington is +165 (risk $100 to win $165). The over-under, or total number of goals Vegas thinks will be scored, is six. The puck drops in Game 1 of this 2018 NHL playoffs series at 8 p.m. ET.

Before you make any Stanley Cup playoffs pick, you need to see what SportsLine expert David Kelly has to say. A Toronto-born hockey analyst with multiple advanced degrees, Kelly has been one of the nation's premier hockey handicappers, earning more than $5,000 for $100 bettors this season.

He knows the ins and outs of these two teams, going 21-9 on Washington games and 23-14 on games involving Tampa Bay.

Now, using his proprietary models and unmatched knowledge of the game, Kelly has examined Game 1 from every angle. We can tell you Kelly is leaning over, but has a strong puck-line pick, and you won't discover his reasons buried in any box score. He's sharing it over at SportsLine.

Kelly knows Tampa Bay is a scorching 5-1 at home this postseason after going 29-12 at Amalie Arena during the regular season. But Washington, in its lone game in Tampa in October, took the Lightning to overtime before falling 4-3.

Both teams have played effectively this postseason, with Washington at 8-4 and Tampa Bay winning eight of its 10 games.

"The key to any hope the Capitals may have is to be on the plus side of the special-teams ledger," Kelly told SportsLine. "But Tampa is not a highly penalized team, which can be problematic."

Alex Ovechkin leads the Caps in playoff goals with eight and points with 15. Nikita Kucherov tops the Lightning with six goals and 12 points.

Kelly noted Braden Holtby and Andrei Vasilevskiy were two of the best goaltenders in the 2018 NHL playoffs and their goals against average -- Holtby's 2.04 and Vasilevskiy's 2.20 -- prove it.

So which team does Kelly believe takes Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals? Visit SportsLine now to get David Kelly's exclusive selection, all from an incomparable NHL expert who's 21-9 on picks involving the Capitals.