We're finally here. It took us a lot longer than originally planned, but we've arrived at the destination. On Sunday, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will square off in the Champions League final. It's a bittersweet moment. I'm excited to see the final between two of the world's best clubs, with some of the greatest players on the globe.
But I've also been extremely hot betting Champions League matches this year, and I don't want that to come to an end!
So how can I take advantage of both the excitement and not wanting it to end? Easy! Instead of making three picks for the match like I've been doing, I'm going to make five. If the Champions League is coming to an end, we're going out with a bang, baby.
- Odds: Bayern Munich +102; Draw +310; Paris Saint-Germain +220 (via William Hill Sportsbook)
Bayern Munich (+103)
Liverpool fans, if you're reading this, do me a favor and skip to the next paragraph. OK, now that they're gone, I can tell you that Bayern Munich is the best team in the world. They have been all season. I know Liverpool destroyed the Premier League, and it was incredible, but Bayern are still the better team. For evidence of this fact, Bayern Munich are still playing in the Champions League while Liverpool went out to an Atletico Madrid side that finished a distant third in La Liga.
Welcome back, Liverpool fans. Anyway, as I was saying, Bayern Munich are pretty good. They've been the team I've had tabbed to win this tournament the entire time, and now that they've reached the final, it'd be weird to bail on them now.
Now, this isn't to say that I'm overly confident. PSG are dangerous. In fact, Liverpool fans, skip the rest of this paragraph too. Anyway, PSG have the best attacking trio in the world. Better than Liverpool's trio, and better than the trio they're facing in this very match. That alone makes it a very dangerous side against anybody.
But Bayern are the complete team. I have more trust in it to operate as a whole than I do in PSG, and that's why I'm taking Die Roten to win and lift the Champions League trophy for the third time, and first since 2013.
Over 3.5 (+100)
I like this play more than anything else, honestly. A big reason both of these teams are here is that they've been solid defensively, but my instincts tell me we're going to see a high-scoring affair in the final. There's just too much attacking talent on the pitch in this match for it not to be.
While Bayern beat Lyon 3-0 in the semis, we can't ignore that Lyon had a couple of juicy chances to score and didn't convert. The same can be said of PSG in matches against Leipzig and Atalanta. If both teams allow those same kinds of chances against each other in this match, they will pay the price for it.
At even odds, I can't pass this play up.
Goal to be scored between 31st minute and halftime (+130)
So we've established that I believe there will be plenty of goals in this match, but when are they most likely to come? Well, looking at how these two sides have played this season, the final 15 minutes before halftime sure looks like a great bet.
In Bayern matches this season, 19.6% of the total goals scored (either by Bayern or against) came in this window. For PSG, it's 19.3%. No other 15-minute stretch has seen more goals scored for either side, so this is an excellent value play.
Robert Lewandowski to score (-167)
This one is self-evident. I'm expecting plenty of goals to be scored, and Bayern to win the match. Do you see many scenarios playing out in which those two things happen, and Robert Lewandowski isn't one of the players who scores a goal? I know Serge Gnabry has been the hot hand (or foot?) lately, but Bobby Lew is still Bobby Lew. He's averaging 3.07 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Champions League, and he's converted on 53.5% of his shots on target. Do the math.
Neymar to score (+125)
I can't quit you, Neymar. I have taken Neymar to score in PSG's last two matches only to watch him break my heart numerous times. Neymar's gotten off nine shots in those two matches and had an xG of 1.7 in that time. They haven't just been wild efforts! They've been great scoring chances!
And he's missed them all. He's hit some posts or gone just wide. There was even one moment against Leipzig when Neymar and Kylian Mbappe had a two-on-one break, which results in a PSG goal roughly 150% of the time. But Mbappe's pass to Neymar outside the penalty area was just a touch behind him, and Neymar slipped trying to slow down to field it.
I nearly cried.
Well, I'm going back to the well again here. There's simply no way Neymar will keep getting these chances and not convert one of them. The Law of Probability is the law!
Also, full disclosure, if I didn't bet this, he'd score a hat trick, so at the very least, I'm saving myself the heartache of watching that happen and getting nothing for it.
Sometimes you have to bet with your heart in mind.
So who wins PSG vs. Bayern Munich? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the PSG vs. Bayern Munich money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up an eye-popping 13,800 percent.
