Since Harry Kane signed his six year contract extension in 2018, his fate has been in Tottenham's hands. He might have grumbled about his desire to leave for two years ago, half-heartedly attempting to force his way to Manchester City, but ultimately Daniel Levy has held all the cards, safe in the knowledge that "one of their own" would be loath to burn bridges in his pursuit of a move.
This summer looks to be the moment that changes, when Tottenham might be forced to make a decision they'd really rather not. Spurs are said to be ready to reject the much trailed €70 million offer Bayern Munich are ready to submit for their vice captain but it seems highly unlikely that will be the end of the story. Bayern laboured last year without an elite striker and their head coach Thomas Tuchel is a great admirer of Kane.
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No wonder. Kane would be a perfect addition for Bayern in the same way he would be for almost any other club in the world, offering them three archetypes in one, often in the same move. The 30 year old could be the back to goal target man who Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane bounce the ball off as they dart forward. He could drop deeper and pick a pass for Bayern's runners beyond him as he did for Heung-min Son so often. Alternatively, he could simply function as a penalty box poacher, waiting for cutbacks from the byline and darting across center backs to finish.
Kane is the complete package. That makes for quite the headache if Bayern or any other club put down the sort of money Tottenham can't turn down for a player in the final year of his contract, one who has so far offered little public indication that he would consider extending. For years Spurs have been able to function without much creativity in midfield -- the imminent signing of James Maddison should address some of that -- because they've been able to have Kane function as an elite number 10 and number nine. Can they find another player on the market who can do that? Should they even attempt to? Here's five potential options for Tottenham if they do feel compelled to move on from their record goalscorer:
1. Richarlison -- Spurs' in-house option
If you're in the market for a top tier striker, then it probably is not the worst idea to ask yourself, who have Brazil got leading the line for them, they're usually pretty good at producing forwards? What a welcome surprise it would be for Tottenham then to discover that the man at the tip of international football's most star-studded attack has been on their books these last 12 months. You wouldn't have known it if you'd been watching much of Richarlison since he moved from Everton.
Last season brought just one Premier League goal, a number famously eclipsed by the occasions he took his shirt off to celebrate goals that would subsequently be ruled out by VAR. It is easy to explain Richarlison's struggles as a function of Tottenham's own misery, and certainly it is reasonable to assume that the more progressive football of Ange Postecoglu would get more out of the 26 year old, who would likely find better form if featuring more consistently.
The cause for concern, however, is how much Richarlison seems to have lost of his game not just in his time with Spurs but before he left Everton. The past three Premier League seasons brought just 14 non-penalty goals and the 0.3 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes. That's a fairly meek return, especially when so many other statistics were on the decline. The shots do not come with the same frequency while the ball progression and off-ball diligence also appear to have eased up. Given consistent minutes in a more progressive side, the Brazilian could get more towards the player he was in his early years at Everton while entrusting him to lead the line post-Kane would free up resources to improve the rest of the side. It would, however, be quite the leap of faith to think Richarlison could get back to the player he was.
2. Jonathan David -- Canada's star striker
On Tottenham's list of options to pursue in the event of Kane's exit lies the name Jonathan David, according to CBS Sports sources. It is easy to see why. If you want a replacement who can offer you the numerous creative and finishing qualities Spurs get from their vice captain, you probably need Karim Benzema. If you want the raw materials to reforge Kane for the coming years, David might just be your best bet. Over his three seasons at Lille, the Canadian has done a bit of everything: the second striker behind a lead forward, a creator, and the primary center forward this season. In those seasons he has scored 13, 13 and 14 non-penalty goals, adding a further 10 from the spot in 2022-23.
At 23 years of age and valued by Lille at €65 million, David is the sort of profile that Tottenham should be looking for after years in which they seemed to be engulfed by the sort of status anxiety that saw them try to thread the needle between veterans and young talent for big name coaches in Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte, leaving no one happy. In their current circumstances, sure thing strikers aren't available to Spurs in a summer where Victor Osimhen is priced at more than double David's value. There would be plenty of time for the forward to adapt to the Premier League; if he were a success Spurs could make a tidy return selling him on.
3. Randal Kolo Muani -- Bundesliga's up-and-comer
If Bayern do indeed go for Kane that would open the door for Tottenham to replace him with the forward many viewed as the Bavarians' likeliest addition this summer, Randal Kolo Muani. The Eintracht Frankfurt striker was the third highest scorer in the Bundesliga last season with 15 to his name and proved his quality at the highest level with an eye-catching cameo in the World Cup Final. Spurs have long been linked with a move for Kolo Muani but so have Manchester United and it seems inevitable that if he does move this summer it will be for an inflated figure.
For a sizeable sum, Kolo Muani's new club would be getting a player who offers more than just a scorer, his 11 assists the second most in the Bundesliga. Tottenham could deploy a more fluid front three, Dejan Kulusevski, Maddison and Son drifting around the pitch, offering their opponents no fixed reference point, the scoring and creating burden more widely shared than it was last season.
4. Ollie Watkins -- Staying in England
If Premier League experience is a prerequisite then Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins might be the most natural option, sitting ahead of Ivan Toney given the Brentford striker is banned from playing until January. In each of his three seasons of Premier League, the boyhood Arsenal fan has hit double figures for goals, delivering 15 last term alongside six assists. This was no fluke either, Watkins averaging 0.43 npxG and 0.11 expected goals assisted. Having just turned 27, however, Watkins is both at an age where Villa would demand a sizeable fee and there would be precious little opportunity to recoup that on the other end.
5. Dusan Vlahovic -- Juventus' expensive struggler
Most of the strikers named above hit a rich vein of form last season. Dusan Vlahovic did not, registering a mere 10 goals in Serie A, two of them penalties. The unanswered questions that hung over him in Fiorentina, where a boatload of penalty conversions seemed to swell his value, have got something of a response this year as he has struggled to hit form in a Juventus side rocked by struggles on and off the pitch.
The Old Lady are said to be ready to part ways with Vlahovic for a fee significant enough that it should prompt some serious skepticism, but even in his struggles the Serbia international averaged more than three shots per 90 minutes. At Spurs he might be able to replicate Kane's shot production, especially with Postecoglu coaching an attack with the spark of Maddison and Kulusevski, but it might just be that and that alone that Spurs would be getting.
