Argentina won't get the expected matchup with Brazil in the semifinal, but they face a tall task Tuesday when they take on 2018 runners-up Croatia in a 2022 FIFA World Cup semifinal. Croatia knocked off pre-tournament favorite Brazil in a penalty shootout on Friday after both teams scored in extra time and it ended 1-1. Lionel Messi and Argentina also needed penalties to decide their Friday quarterfinal matchup with the Netherlands. The Dutch evened it at 2-2 late in second-half injury time, but La Albiceleste prevailed to put Messi one step closer to winning the sport's ultimate prize for the first time. Argentina have won two World Cups (1978, 1986) and were 2014 runners-up, while Croatia are in the semifinals for the third time (1998, 2018).
Kickoff Tuesday at Lusail Stadium is set for 2 p.m. ET. Argentina are -125 favorites (risk $125 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Argentina vs. Croatia odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Croatia are +375 underdogs, a draw is priced at +235 and the over/under for total goals is set at 2.5. Before locking in any Croatia vs. Argentina picks, you need to see the World Cup predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven soccer model.
The SportsLine soccer simulation model evaluates a team's offensive and defensive capabilities based on the game situation. Then, it assigns a grade using an expected payout-to-probability ratio. The model was accurate on 56% of all picks during the Champions League group stage and returned more than $1,000 to $100 bettors on its A+ picks. It also enters the World Cup semifinals on a 33-15-4 run on spread picks, returning more than $1,400 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now the model has dialed in on Argentina vs. Croatia and just revealed its 2022 World Cup picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model's soccer picks. Here are the World Cup 2022 odds and trends for Croatia vs. Argentina:
- Argentina vs. Croatia spread: Argentina -0.5 (-125)
- Argentina vs. Croatia over/under: 2.5 goals
- Argentina vs. Croatia money line: Argentina -125, Croatia +375, Draw +235
- Argentina: They have a 9-4 edge in goals in the five matches
- Croatia: They have outscored their opponents 6-3 in Qatar
- Argentina vs. Croatia picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back Argentina
La Albiceleste saw their 36-game unbeaten run end in a 2-1 opening loss to Saudi Arabia that left them reeling, but they have rebounded admirably. Messi has scored in four of the five matches in Qatar, and Argentina have scored twice in four straight games. Messi is the nation's all-time leader in goals (95) and caps (160) and ranks second among the sport's all-time goal scorers. He also won 35 trophies during his career with Barcelona, but this is likely his last chance to win a World Cup. The 2021 Copa America is his only major trophy with Argentina.
Messi and Angel Di Maria are the veterans on a squad with a strong youth presence, and Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez are both dangerous scorers. Alvarez, 22, has scored twice in Qatar and has five goals in his past 10 international matches. Martinez, 25, has seven goals in La Liga with Inter Milan. Argentina are 11-2-1 with a 35-7 goal advantage in 2022.
Why you should back Croatia
The Checkered Ones have experience at this level that few can match, with talisman Luka Modric among the many who starred for the 2018 squad. The Croatians routed Argentina 3-0 in group play in that tournament, with Modric scoring one of the goals. The 37-year-old Real Madrid star plays alongside Inter Milan's Marcelo Brozovic and Chelsea's Mateo Kovacic in a crafty veteran midfield. They are among six Croatia players with at least 75 caps, led by Modric with a record 160. He also ranks fifth in goals with 23 and is the key to the Croatia attack.
Modric is the World Cup leader in progressive passes (46) and is third in both passes into the final third (23) and into the penalty area (10). Ivan Perisic is tied for second all-time for Croatia with 33 goals, and Andrej Kramaric is tied for sixth with 22. Kramaric scored twice in a 4-1 victory against Canada, and Perisic had the equalizer to force the shootout against Japan. Goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic allowed three goals on eight penalties in the shootouts with Japan and Brazil, and he has eight clean sheets in 17 competitive matches for Croatia in 2022.
How to make Croatia vs. Argentina picks
The model has broken down Tuesday's Croatia vs. Argentina semifinal match from every angle, and it is leaning Over on the goal total. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see those picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Argentina vs. Croatia on Tuesday? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Croatia vs. Argentina money line to back, all from the model up more than $1,400 on its World Cup spread picks, and find out.
