Are you ready for free agency to begin? Teams are officially allowed to meet with targets for the first time tonight at midnight, which means things are going to get crazy tonight. Though players aren't allowed to sign for another week, Tuesday night could see some of the biggest names in the NBA find new homes, with obvious repercussions to the Fantasy landscape.
Before you set up mobile alert notifications for the biggest reporters in the game -- but after the bookmark for the Eye on Basketball blog for the latest news and analysis -- here is my preview of the free agency market. These are my Top 10 free agents for Fantasy, along with their best and worst-case Fantasy scenarios for the summer, whether they are likely or not:
The Fantasy Basketball Today Top 10 free agents
Kevin Love, F
Best-case scenario: Signs in Boston
The Celtics had Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk launching 359 3-pointers last season, despite the fact that they combined to make just 31.5 percent of those attempts. The Celtics desperately need an offensive centerpiece, and it's hard to think of a better potential fit for what Brad Stevens wants to do than Love. We've seen Love be a top-5 overall Fantasy player before, and he would return to that level instantly if the Celtics can convince him to move on from Cleveland.
Worst-case scenario: Returns to Cleveland
Love never seemed completely healthy in his first year in Cleveland, and a lingering back injury certainly didn't help. There are reasons to expect better the second time around, but there is probably a limit to how much we can expect from him as long as he stays in Cleveland. During the season, the Chris Bosh comparison for Love was made constantly, because Bosh's jump from Toronto to Miami was so similar:
Last season before joining LeBron:
| Player | Season | Age | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | eFG% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh | 2009-10 | 25 | 70 | 36.1 | 8.6 | 16.5 | .518 | 0.1 | 0.3 | .364 | 8.5 | 16.2 | .521 | .522 | 6.7 | 8.4 | .797 | 2.9 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 24.0 |
| Kevin Love | 2013-14 | 25 | 77 | 36.3 | 8.4 | 18.5 | .457 | 2.5 | 6.6 | .376 | 6.0 | 11.9 | .502 | .524 | 6.8 | 8.2 | .821 | 2.9 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 26.1 |
First season with LeBron:
| Player | Season | Age | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | eFG% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh | 2010-11 | 26 | 77 | 36.3 | 6.8 | 13.7 | .496 | 0.1 | 0.3 | .240 | 6.7 | 13.4 | .502 | .499 | 5.0 | 6.1 | .815 | 1.8 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 18.7 |
| Kevin Love | 2014-15 | 26 | 75 | 33.8 | 5.5 | 12.7 | .434 | 1.9 | 5.2 | .367 | 3.6 | 7.5 | .480 | .509 | 3.4 | 4.3 | .804 | 1.9 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 16.4 |
Things never actually got any better for Bosh's Fantasy value, which has to be a concern for anyone who has Love in a Dynasty league. If his back was as big of an issue as it seems, maybe he can improve in his second season in Cleveland, but he'll never get back to his Minnesota days as long as he is playing next to LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.
LaMarcus Aldridge, F
Best-case scenario: Returns to Portland
Aldridge gets 20 shots per game in Portland; why would we want him to leave? He can go somewhere else and be the man, but he is already that in Portland. He gets as many shots as he wants, and has developed into a strong rebounder after years of that being his only potential weakness. He has a young point guard to lean on and set him up for good shots, and has been slowly nudged out beyond the 3-point line, where he met 35 shots last season. Aldridge is probably the type of player who will be a Fantasy stud anywhere, but it's hard to think of a better fit for him.
Worst-case scenario: Signs with Spurs
Look, it's nothing against the Spurs. It is a wonderful organization; probably the model for the rest of the league. However, that is also part of why they aren't a great outfit for Fantasy purposes. They spread minutes and touches out, with only one player in the last two seasons averaging 30-plus minutes for the Spurs. They are smart enough to change things up to run more of the offense through Aldridge, but it's awfully hard to see him getting 35 minutes and 20 shots per night in San Antonio -- nobody does anymore.
Kawhi Leonard, F
Best-case scenario: Signs elsewhere
Leonard is such an interesting case, because there are real reasons to think he isn't suited to be a true go-to scorer. The Spurs allow him to get the ball in the right spots, where he doesn't just have to break guys down off the dribble, and that allows him to be the best version of himself possible. On the other hand, he averaged 17.2 points per game after returning from injury last season, and then went off for 20.3 per in the playoffs, so those concerns are probably overstated. I will default to him leaving San Antonio as the best-case scenario for his Fantasy value, if only for the same reasons Aldridge landing there wouldn't be a good thing. Of course….
Worst-case scenario: Returns to San Antonio
This isn't happening anyways. He'll be back.
Jimmy Butler, F/G
Best-case scenario: Returns to Chicago
The Bulls' other two go-to scorers are a 34-year-old with a history of knee and foot issues -- who fell off hard in the playoffs -- and an injury-prone point guard who shot 40.5 percent from the field last season. So, yeah, Butler's in a pretty good spot right now. The Bulls have enough help to cover up for some of his limitations, but not so much that you can't see him getting 15 shots per game next season. He'll probably (hopefully) see fewer minutes with Tom Thibodeau out, but Butler seems like the guy in Chicago now, and it really is a perfect spot for him.
Worst-case scenario: Signs with the Lakers
As a restricted free agent, there aren't a lot of potential landing spots we can actually take seriously here. Butler has already postponed free agency meetings with a number of suitors, after the Bulls made it clear they will offer him the maximum contract possible. There is almost no way Butler doesn't return to Chicago, but the Lakers are probably the least interesting spots he lined up. The presence of a ball-dominant point guard and a potentially washed up Kobe Bryant just doesn't sound like a good situation, though Butler is probably talented enough to make it work anyway.
Dwyane Wade, G
Best-case scenario: Signs in New York
The Knicks pulled off the twin feats of being a dreadful basketball team and also being almost non-existent for Fantasy purposes last season. Their lack of talent played a big part in that, so Wade could help in that regard. Truthfully, there aren't a lot of potential outcomes that leave Wade with a significantly improved Fantasy outlook heading into next season. He can stay on a stacked Heat team that will likely try to limit his exposure in the regular season, or go to rebuilding Lakers and Knicks teams. At least in New York, he could be a lead ballhandler, leaving the potential for a few more vintage 20-5-5 seasons, even at the Knicks' snail-like pace.
Worst-case scenario: Signs in Cleveland
This isn't happening, right? Wade isn't going to leave the Heat over complaints about his pay, and then take a massive pay cut to play in Cleveland. And it would have to be a truly massive pay cut, because the Cavaliers won't have much more than a few million to offer. I'm not sure how serious this possibility should be taken, but being surrounded by Kyrie Irving, LeBron James and possibly Love couldn't possibly be good for his value. This is the worst of what look to be a bunch of bad possible outcomes.
Marc Gasol, C
Best-case scenario: Returns to Memphis
There is almost no reason to include Gasol here. He's a second or third-round talent for Fantasy, and it's hard to see that changing much one way or the other as long as he stays in Memphis. And, let's be clear, he's not leaving Memphis. He's not even having a free agency meeting with anyone besides Memphis.
Worst-case scenario: Signs elsewhere
See above.
Greg Monroe, F/C
Best-case scenario: Signs in New York
Monroe's skilled post game seems like a perfect fit in New York, at least on offense. He could form a devastating duo with Carmelo Anthony, especially when they use the two as the center and power forward, at least on offense. Monroe won't be a No. 1 option in New York, but he probably wouldn't be that anywhere else anyways. The Knicks are pretty starved for talent in the frontcourt, so touches and rebounds wouldn't be hard to come by. He could be a double-double lock with three-plus assists per game to boot.
Worst-case scenario: Returns to Detroit
Monroe put up decent numbers in Detroit, but it never seemed to click between him and Andre Drummond. He seemed to be taking off in 2012-13, but Drummond's emergence has caused his career to stagnate. The presence of Ersan Ilyasova as the kind of stretch-four Stan Van Gundy prefers means a return is unlikely, and probably unwanted by any party involved.
Paul Millsap, F
Best-case scenario: Goes to Utah
The Jazz played a slow, plodding style last season, because that is what kind of roster they had. It was hard for Quin Snyder to justify a high-tempo offense when he was playing a rookie point guard who could basically only spot up, along with two big men whose range extends little further than about 12 feet. However, he probably wants to get out and run if he can, and Millsap would certainly help open things up. If the rumor that the Jazz are willing to move Favors if they signed Millsap are true, he could be a perfect stretch-4 and second option offensively next to Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward.
Worst-case scenario: None
It's hard to find much downside with Millsap. The teams I have seen mentioned as potential landing spots include Utah, Boston and a return to Atlanta, and he would be a perfect fit in any of them. He doesn't need the ball to put up solid numbers, but could be a fine choice as a first or second offensive option if he did end up with the Jazz or Celtics.
Brandon Knight, G
Best-case scenario: Signs elsewhere
There are some moving pieces here, because the Suns are reportedly looking into moving Bledsoe Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas and Knight all struggled to play next to him. However, assuming Bledsoe is brought back, I'd rather see Knight moved on to somewhere he can be a lead ballhandler on his own. Remember, he averaged 17.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game with the Bucks last season.
Worst-case scenario: Returns to Phoenix
Knight is expected to get a max offer from the Suns and likely won't be going anywhere, but his 11-game audition in Phoenix was disastrous enough that I would probably rather see him move on. In fairness, he wasn't healthy at any point after the trade, but it's an awkward enough fit that I would rather not see him back in Phoenix.
Goran Dragic, G
Best-case scenario: Returns to Miami
Dragic didn't put up huge numbers in Miami, which isn't terribly surprising, given the presence of Dwyane Wade. Wade will -- likely! -- be back, and the Heat also have to figure out how to work Chris Bosh back in as well. Dragic was reportedly targeted by the Lakers and Knicks in addition to the Heat before the deadline, and the Kings were also reportedly very interested. Of those, even a stacked Heat roster is probably the best Fantasy outcome.
Worst-case scenario: Signs with Lakers
Maybe if the Lakers had selected Jahlil Okafor No. 2 overall in the draft, this might have been a better landing spot. However, splitting ballhandling duties with a rookie D'Angelo Russell and an aging Kobe Bryant doesn't sound like a great outcome for Dragic.
