Houston and Cincinnati meet Sunday in the AAC tournament championship game. After opening as 4.5-point favorites, the Bearcats and now favored by four. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 127.5.

Before you lock in your picks, you need to see what veteran handicapper Josh Nagel has to say.

Nagel has been on fire this March, stringing together a white-hot 15-5 run as the NCAA Tournament approaches.

Part of his success: Nagel has been entrenched in the handicapping industry for two decades. He has covered college basketball on numerous platforms, giving him a bird's eye view that's unmatched. He knows when a line is way off.

Now, he's locked in a play for Sunday's AAC title game. We can tell you he's leaning under, but what about the spread, which he's picking at a 75 percent clip?

Nagel knows Cincinnati and Houston split during the regular season, with each winning on its home floor.

Houston's win halted the Bearcats' 16-game winning streak and sent them into a two-game slide. Cincinnati's win over Houston had the opposite effect, as the Cougars proceeded to reel off five straight wins.

Cincinnati has won six in a row headed into Sunday, but has lacked its dominant form in the first two AAC tournament games. The Bearcats sleepwalked through the first halves of both games and faced a 13-point halftime deficit Saturday against Memphis.

Houston squeaked by Wichita State in the AAC tournament on Saturday, 77-74, and now face a top-10 team in Cincinnati.

Nagel knows there's a huge X-factor that determines which side of the spread you need to be on. And there's even a key stat to back him up.

So which side of Houston vs. Cincinnati to you need to jump on now? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point spread pick, and see what x-factor makes the difference, all from an expert on a 15-5 college basketball run.