The Spartans will try to take advantage of a depleted opponent and sweep the season series when No. 14 Michigan State (16-5, 8-2) travels to face the Wisconsin Badgers (12-9, 5-5) in a Big Ten matchup on Saturday. Michigan State defeated Wisconsin 67-55 on Jan. 17, and this time the Badgers will be without guards Brad Davison (suspension) and second-leading scorer Kobe King (transfer). The Spartans expect a big game from star guard Cassius Winston and they can usually count on one from Xavier Tillman as well. Michigan State has won two in a row, while Wisconsin comes in on a two-game losing streak.
Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisc. The Spartans are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Wisconsin vs. Michigan State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 130. Before considering any Michigan State vs. Wisconsin picks or college basketball predictions, make sure you see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 13 of the 2019-20 season on a 22-13 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it during that span has seen some huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. Wisconsin. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State:
- Michigan State vs. Wisconsin spread: Spartans -5.5
- Michigan State vs. Wisconsin over-under: 130
- Michigan State vs. Wisconsin money line: Spartans -254, Badgers +205
- MSU: Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown are each 6-for-12 on 3-pointers over the last five games.
- WISC: F Nate Reuvers blocks 2.7 shots per game at home.
Why Michigan State can cover
Michigan State is 6-4 against the spread in conference games, and Winston and Tillman are a formidable duo. Winston leads the team in points (18) and assists (5.9) per game, while Tillman is the top rebounder (9.9) and scores 13.8. Tillman is the defensive force, averaging 2.1 blocks and 1.1 steals.
The Spartans, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six Saturday games, also have depth, with forwards Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown combining for 18.2 points and 8.6 rebounds. Rocket Watts and Marcus Bingham provide energy whether starting or off the bench. Winston, Henry and Brown all shoot better than 35 percent on 3-pointers, led by Winston's 38.6 (44 of 114).
Why Wisconsin can cover
Even so, the Spartans aren't a lock to cover the Michigan State vs. Wisconsin spread. The home team is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between the teams, and Wisconsin's strength is in its frontcourt. Forward Nate Reuvers does everything for the Badgers, with team highs in scoring (13.8) and rebounds (5.1). The 6-foot-11 junior also blocks 2.1 shots per game and shoots 31.3 percent from 3-point range.
Guard Darius Trice and forward Micah Potter are expected to take on bigger roles for the Badgers, who have covered the spread in their past four Saturday games. Trice runs the point and averages 3.5 assists, and he hits 36.2 percent from long range, while Potter is the team's top rebounder at 5.5 per game and chips in 9.3 points. The Badgers allow just 61.4 points per game.
How to make Michigan State vs. Wisconsin picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, with Trice expected to step up for the Badgers and Michigan State set to get a boost from its bench, according to the simulations. The model also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Michigan State vs. Wisconsin? And which side of the spread is hitting more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Wisconsin vs. Michigan spread to jump on Saturday, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,700 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.
