The SMU Mustangs and BYU Cougars both are trying to finish strong when they square off in Saturday's 2022 New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque. The Mustangs (7-5) won four of their final five regular-season games, wrapping up with a 34-31 victory against Memphis on Nov. 26. BYU (7-5) has won three in a row after a four-game losing streak wrecked what could have been a dream season. The Cougars were ranked 16th in the nation before a loss to Notre Dame triggered their slide. BYU has won all three meetings, including the 1980 Holiday Bowl, when quarterback Jim McMahon rallied the Cougars to a 46-45 victory over SMU and its vaunted Pony Express backfield of Eric Dickerson and Craig James.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at University Stadium. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Mustangs as 4.5-point favorites in its latest SMU vs. BYU odds, and the over/under for total points scored is set at 65. Before locking in any BYU vs. SMU picks or New Mexico Bowl bets, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on SMU vs. BYU and just revealed its New Mexico Bowl 2022 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for BYU vs. SMU:
- SMU vs. BYU spread: Mustangs -4.5
- SMU vs. BYU over/under: 65 points
- SMU vs. BYU money line: Mustangs -195, Cougars +162
- SMU: The Mustangs have scored 27 or more in 10 games
- BYU: The Cougars are 6-0 SU when they allow 27 or fewer
- SMU vs. BYU picks: See picks here
Why SMU can cover
SMU has the passing offense to exploit a BYU defense that is allowing opponents to complete 69 percent of their passes, which is fourth-worst in the nation. Tanner Mordecai led SMU to 77 points six weeks ago, throwing nine TD passes. He has thrown for 3,306 yards and 31 touchdowns and is completing 64% of his throws. He will miss Rashee Rice, who was second in the nation with 1,355 receiving yards but is out with a toe injury. But fellow wide receiver Jordan Kerley, who has 538 yards and averages 17.4 per catch, should be able to pick up the slack.
Dylan Goffney and Moochie Dixon also average at least 14.5 yards per catch, and tight end RJ Maryland has 27 receptions. The SMU passing game is sixth in the nation, averaging 325 yards per game. The Mustangs are 4-3 ATS as a favorite this season, making them 5-7 overall, while BYU is 4-8 ATS and 1-2 ATS as an underdog. SMU running back Tyler Lavine has rushed for 404 of his 535 yards in his past four games, and he has scored nine touchdowns. The Cougars allow 236 passing yards (84th in FBS), 283 rushing (102nd) and 30.4 points (93rd) per game.
Why BYU can cover
BYU could be starting a quarterback that hasn't thrown a pass all year if Jaren Hall (ankle) can't go, but the Cougars might prefer to keep it on the ground anyway. They average 5.3 yards per carry, 16th-best in the nation, while SMU allows 5.2, 12th-worst. Christopher Brooks rushed for 164 yards in a victory against Stanford in the last game and has 729 yards (6.6 per carry). He has 266 yards in the past two games after returning from a two-game absence. Hall has rushed for 346 and thrown for 3,171 yards while accounting for 34 touchdowns, so if he manages to play, it would be a huge plus.
The Mustangs yield more than 203 rushing yards per game, 11th-most in the nation, and are in the bottom 15 in total yards (446) and scoring (34.7). Receiver Puka Nacua should play a big role for the Cougars, as he has accounted for 10 touchdowns. The junior plays a part in the run game, rushing for 209 yards, and also has 625 on 48 catches. BYU is 5-1 straight-up in its last six against AAC teams, while the Mustangs have lost six in a row to independents. The Cougars have allowed 205 or more rushing yards in all five losses. SMU has topped that number twice.
How to make SMU vs. BYU New Mexico Bowl picks
The model has simulated the New Mexico Bowl matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. The model is leaning Over on the point total, with simulations showing a final score that clears 70 points. The model also has generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins the SMU vs. BYU matchup in Saturday's New Mexico Bowl? And which side of the spread is hitting 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the BYU vs. SMU spread to back Saturday in the New Mexico Bowl, all from the advanced model that has been crushing its top-rated college football picks, and find out.
