Notre Dame started the year with College Football Playoff hopes affirmed by an impressive performance against Texas in the opener, one that launched Malik Zaire's name into the way-too-early Heisman Trophy conversation and centered the sport's spotlight on the Irish.
But running back Taurean Folston suffered a season-ending knee injury in the opener, then tight end Durham Smythe was shut down after a Week 2 win that also included the loss of Zaire to a season-ending ankle injury. With all this bad news for Notre Dame, it's a blessing that the team's challenging early-season schedule won't allow the coaching staff to dwell on the setbacks.
"We're kind of on the treadmill, right? We're just kind of running and we keep moving, and we don't stop to think about it, quite honestly," Brian Kelly said on the ACC teleconference this week. "If we stopped to think about it, we'd probably be like most everybody else in the country. We'd be concerned about it."
Over the next month, Notre Dame will play three teams ranked in the top 15 of the current AP Top 25, plus Navy. Saturday's game against Georgia Tech won't make or break Notre Dame's season, but the next month will determine whether the Irish are in the playoff conversation.
So that bright spotlight turns to DeShone Kizer, a big sophomore from Toledo, Ohio, whose first action came in leading Notre Dame out of Charlottesville with a win after Zaire's injury.
What to expect from DeShone Kizer
At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, Kizer is a big dude with a big arm. Kelly was sure to point out that he was recruited to this brand of the Notre Dame offense, so the game plan should not have to change that much. But even after that impressive performance against Virginia, Kizer will be a first-time starter going up against Georgia Tech.
"We can't get too complicated," Kelly said, before quickly turning his point around. "On the other hand, we've got to be able to score points against a prolific offense like Georgia Tech."
"It's kind of one of those things where we can't handcuff him and baby him," Kelly added. "We've got to let him play. What I like about him the most is he's very confident. He's got very good poise and leadership skills. He can go out there, and we really don't have to worry about him with kind of that deer in the headlights look to him. He's going to go out there being very confident."
Kizer is big enough to run and take a hit, but maybe not as fast as Zaire and certainly not as proven a runner in terms of patience and vision. Expect Notre Dame to continue to use the quarterback as a rushing threat, but maybe with fewer designed runs because of the sudden depth issue at the position. Talented freshman Brandon Wimbush will "definitely" play at some point this season, according to Kelly, but I don't think the coaching staff wants to need him to play because of injury. Kizer is big enough to take a hit, but that doesn't mean the coaching staff is ready to put him in the open field 15 times per game.
While working as the team's No. 2 behind Zaire, Kizer said he expected to see the field at some point in 2015. So it's not as if he's unprepared for the moment. If so, he certainly didn't look it while completing 8 of 12 passes against Virginia, including the pretty game-winning touchdown toss to Will Fuller.
What to expect from Notre Dame
| SportsLine Simulation: Notre Dame in 2015 | ||
| QB Malik Zaire |
QB DeShone Kizer |
|
| Projected Wins | 9.72 | 9.49 |
| Chance of going undefeated | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| Chance of 1-loss season | 33.5% | 31.2% |
| Projected points per game | 36.13 | 34.63 |
| Chances of beating USC | 43% | 40% |
| Chances of beating Clemson | 56% | 47% |
| Chances of beating Stanford | 56% | 49% |
Given the nature of Zaire's injury, I, like anyone else following college football, wondered how this impacted Notre Dame's expectations for the year. Luckily, we can remove the biased human element from the equation and crunch some numbers thanks to our friends over at SportsLine.
SportsLine has run 10,000 simulations of Notre Dame's season, with Zaire as the quarterback and with Kizer as the quarterback. The results are actually pretty encouraging for Irish fans. What the data suggests is that Zaire's absence will mostly be felt in the big toss-up games on the schedule.
Every other calculation shows very little dropoff, which speaks to the talent level everywhere else on the field. But what SportsLine's simulations viewed as slight advantages against Clemson and Stanford have now become oh-so-slight disadvantages. The difference there, it appears, was Zaire.
The good news for Notre Dame fans is that the SportsLine simulations do not take into consideration the intangible playmaking value that Kizer has already displayed in his brief time under center. Kizer hasn't seen an opponent the likes of Clemson or Southern California, but he has led a winning touchdown drive in the final minute on the road.
Outlook and pick
Kelly put it best when he said that Kizer "can win some games for us," but he has to "get to the next level" in order for Notre Dame to win a championship. There are championship-level pieces already in place: offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and Quenton Nelson; Fuller leads one of the best receiving units in the country; wide receiver-turned-running back C.J. Prosise is stepping up, too. If Kizer doesn't hurt the team against Georgia Tech, we should get a really, really good game on Saturday afternoon in South Bend.
As for Kizer's opponent Saturday: Georgia Tech's 18 interceptions were good enough to tie for 10th in the country last season, but that all-or-nothing defense was also No. 87 in defensive pass efficiency and No. 111 in yards per play allowed. That opportunistic defense returns most of its key pieces and should finish with better numbers in 2015, but the group -- particularly the secondary -- will have its hands full with Notre Dame's skill position talent.
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame may struggle to get quarterback Justin Thomas and the Yellow Jackets offense off the field. Linebackers Jaylon Smith and James Onwualu will need to flow to the ball and Sheldon Day will need to be disruptive along the defensive line. The Yellow Jackets offense can be a downright bully when it gets rolling, so Notre Dame has to do its best to limit Thomas' time on the field.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Georgia Tech 31
