The South Florida Bulls struggled mightily on the road in their first game of the 2021 season but hope for a better result in the first contest of the year on their own field. South Florida, which was trounced 45-0 at North Carolina State on Sept. 2, is 22-2 in home openers -- including a triumph over The Citadel in 2020 for its lone victory of the year. The Bulls aim to improve upon that record when they host the 13th-ranked Florida Gators on Saturday. Florida began its campaign in strong fashion, rushing for 400 yards en route to a 35-14 home victory over Florida Atlantic.
Kickoff at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Gators are 28.5-point favorites in the latest Florida vs. South Florida odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 58.5. Before making any South Florida vs. Florida picks or college football predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 2 of the 2021 season on a 63-45 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Florida vs. USF and just revealed its picks and analysis. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are the college football odds from Caesars and betting trends for USF vs. Florida:
- Florida vs. South Florida spread: Gators -28.5
- Florida vs. South Florida over-under: 58.5
- Florida vs. South Florida money line: Gators -10000, Bulls +2000
- FLA: The Gators are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as road favorites
- USF: The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against SEC opponents
Why Florida can cover
The Gators racked up 400 rushing yards against Florida Atlantic, setting the school record for most in a season opener as backup quarterback Anthony Richardson gained 160 and running back Malik Davis recorded 104. It was the second career 100-yard rushing performance for Davis, who notched his first as a freshman in 2017. The 400-yard output was the third-highest in program history and largest since the Gators registered 405 on Sept. 24, 2011 against Kentucky.
Richardson and Davis gave Florida its first pair of 100-rushers in a single game since November 2018. The Gators have a solid chance of putting up more big numbers on the ground in this matchup. In its season opener, South Florida allowed two members of the Wolfpack to reach triple digits in rushing yards, with one posting 163. The Gators finished with 553 total yards against Florida Atlantic, marking the 24th time in 30 contests they have recorded 400 or more.
Why South Florida can cover
Despite their disappointing effort against North Carolina State in the season opener, the Bulls did have a few positive performances. One was by Xavier Weaver, who registered 73 yards on two receptions. The junior wide receiver already is more than halfway toward surpassing his output of 136 receiving yards last year and needs 94 to eclipse the career high he set as a freshman in 2019.
Another bright spot from South Florida's first game was the play on the other side of the ball by Andrew Mims. The senior linebacker set a career high with 14 total tackles, including two of the solo variety. Mims picked up right where he left off in 2020, as he finished last year with a season-high 11 tackles -- seven solo -- against UCF.
How to make Florida vs. South Florida picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under the total, projecting 57 combined points. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Florida vs. South Florida? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the South Florida vs. Florida spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up over $3,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.