Two traditionally strong programs will go head-to-head at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Tex. for the 2018 Frisco Bowl between Ohio and San Diego State. Led by quarterback Nathan Rourke, the Bobcats went 8-4 out of the MAC, while San Diego State rode a lockdown defense captained by Kyahva Tezino to a 7-5 record out of the Mountain West. The Frisco Bowl spread and total have fallen all week. Ohio is now a 2.5-point favorite after the line opened at 4.5, while the Over-Under is 49.5 in the latest San Diego State vs. Ohio odds, down over five points. The forecast is calling for a chance of rain, light winds, and temperatures in the 50s. Before you lock in any Ohio vs. San Diego State picks and Frisco Bowl predictions, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

The model made some huge calls during Championship Week, including nailing Ohio State (-16.5) against Northwestern and Oklahoma (-9.5) against Texas. And when it comes to all top-rated picks, the model has been red-hot, entering the 2018 college football season on a blistering 45-25 run. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up.

Now the model has simulated every single play of Ohio vs. San Diego State. We can tell you the model is leaning toward the over, but it has also locked in a strong against the spread selection that you can bank on nearly 60 percent of the time. You can only see it at SportsLine.

The model knows that Ohio quarterback Nathan Rourke fuels the No. 10 scoring offense in the country by providing serious contributions both on the ground and through the air. Rourke ran for 816 yards and a team-leading 13 touchdowns this season to help Ohio average over 262 yards rushing per game. 

And when opponents drop an extra defender into the box, that's when Ohio strikes over the top. Rourke threw for 2,225 yards and 22 touchdowns this season, averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt. 

Ohio was a sterling 7-4 against the spread versus FBS teams this season and has covered five of its last seven. The Bobcats went 5-3 against the spread as favorites.

But just because the Bobcats can virtually score at will doesn't mean they cover the Frisco Bowl spread against the Aztecs.

The defensive line is what charges the Aztecs' strong unit. In half its outings, San Diego State held opponents to 21 points or fewer. In their season-defining game, the Aztecs rolled into Boise to upset the ranked Broncos, 19-13, saddling the Broncos with a season low in points. San Diego State was a 13.5-point underdog in that game and is well-versed in playing spoiler.

Who wins Ohio vs. San Diego State? And which side covers nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 2018 Frisco Bowl spread you need to be all over, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit to $100 bettors over the last three seasons, and find out.