The Military Bowl on Wednesday pits UCF vs. Duke in what is an intriguing matchup on paper between the Group of Five and Power Five. The Knights (9-4, 6-3 AAC) are coming off of a 45-28 loss to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game while the Blue Devils (8-4, 5-3 ACC) have won four of their last five including a 34-31 win over Wake Forest to close out the regular season.
Both teams have flown under the radar this season, as Tulane has drawn most of the eyeballs out of the AAC and Duke didn't have much of a chance in the race for the ACC title.
What will happen on Wednesday afternoon? Let's break down the game and make a pick.
How to watch Military Bowl live
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 28 | Time: 2 p.m. ET
Location: Navy-Marine Corp Memorial Stadium -- Annapolis, Maryland
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
UCF vs. Duke: Need to know
John Rhys Plumlee's impact: The dynamic quarterback of the Knights has 2,404 yards passing and 14 passing touchdowns along with 841 yards rushing and 11 rushing touchdowns. He is nursing a hamstring injury, however. Coach Gus Malzahn's offense generally relies on a difference-maker at the quarterback position, and it'll be interesting to see how he utilizes Plumlee if he isn't 100%. Mikey Keene transferred to Fresno State, which likely means that Thomas Castellanos will be Plumlee's backup if Malzahn needs to go in a different direction.
Riley Leonard is no slouch, either: The Duke quarterback leads the team in passing yards (2,794) and rushing yards (636), and will be going up against a defense that gave up 156.54 rushing yards per game in the regular season. It gave up 248 or more yards in its last three contests and allowed Tulane to rack up 8.19 yards per attempt in the AAC Championship Game. Leonard didn't get a lot of love this year, but this matchup sets up well for the sophomore to make a name for himself.
Third down will be huge: UCF ranks 20th in the conference in third-down offense, converting 46.15% of its chances. On the other hand, Duke's defense has been a sieve on third downs, allowing teams to move the chains 43.64% of the time (114th nationally). If Duke can't get the Knights off of the field, it's going to be a long afternoon in Annapolis.
Military Bowl prediction, picks
UCF's offense is just way too dynamic for this Duke defense and will earn the straight up win despite being three-point underdogs. The combination of Malzahn and time to prepare signals that the Knights will get ultra-creative, which means big plays all over the place. Prediction: UCF (+3)
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