We've spent a lot of time talking about ADP so far this week, after a big draft weekend that led to some big moves. However, the biggest draft weekend of the year is still ahead of us — some 60% of CBS Fantasy leagues have yet to hold their drafts — which means there are plenty of you out there still looking for help.
We've looked at the best and worst values at five different sites, plus broke down 10 of the biggest ADP risers of the weekend, and now we're using SportsLine's projections to identify some of the best and worst values for your upcoming drafts.
SportsLine simulates every season 10,000 times to come up with their projections, which came up with Matt Breida's breakout 2018 season and identified a big bounceback campaign for Andrew Luck last season, too. Here are four players SportsLine's projections have as a good value against ADP this season, as well as four you probably shouldn't be touching:
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SportsLine Projections
best, worst values
Best Values
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Before a shoulder injury derailed things, Newton was having the finest season of his career as a passer, stringing together a streak of 11 straight games with a touchdown beginning in Week 2. His pace during that stretch? 4,128 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 570 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns; that pace would have made him the No. 2 Fantasy quarterback by a decent margin last season.
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If Johnson keeps going in the seventh round and the Texans don't add another running back, this projection probably won't even be enough. This projection has him for 151 carries and 55 receptions — the carries are the lowest number of any back in the top-19, while the receptions would only be the third-highest total of Johnson's NFL career, despite the fact he has spent most of his career in a part-time role. If the Texans really do go into the season with him as their lead back, Johnson might just win a lot of leagues.
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It's ultimately going to come down to whether Sanders can buck history and get back to playing at a high level. Before his Achilles tear, Sanders was on pace for 95 catches, 1,157 yards, and six touchdowns, and this projection doesn't even come close to that; it's about a 20-25% reduction across the board. This is an especially tricky injury to come back from, especially in your 30s, but if Sanders can come back and be even slightly as effective as he was last season, he'll represent a solid return on investment even as his ADP grows.
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The assumption in the Fantasy community seems to be that Cook won't get anywhere close to the 101 targets he got last season to fuel his breakout, but what if he does? What if the Saints' defense takes a step back and they have to throw the ball a bit more, creating the opportunity for their new tight end to play a bigger-than-expected role? We just saw him catch 65.2% of his targets for 8.5 yards per over the last two seasons, and that was with Derek Carr as his quarterback. What happens if he gets 95 targets from Drew Brees? He probably belongs in that second tier of tight ends, that's what.
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Worst Values
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Mayfield is coming off the board right now as the fifth quarterback, just behind Matt Ryan and just before Drew Brees. While I don't much love Brees' value there, I'd much rather have Ryan in that round, let alone the likes of Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff or Carson Wentz going at least a round later across the board. The projections are on my side, with Mayfield slotting in as the 13th quarterback. Now, the position is so tightly bunched up near the top that he's only projected for 12 fewer points than Newton, so this is more about the cost. Can Mayfield be a top-five quarterback? Of course; he had multiple touchdowns in six of his final eight games last season. But is he such a good bet to get there that you're willing to take him four rounds ahead of Newton, Russell Wilson, or Jameis Winston, all of whom have at least as much upside? Not for me.
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You can justify Henry in this range in Non-PPR, but even then, I don't love it because I don't see the upside of a back who doesn't catch passes in a bad offense. You can cite the end of last season all you want, but if he didn't go supernova for four weeks, he would've been maybe the biggest bust in Fantasy. This projection has him for just over 1,000 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, and that strikes me as totally fair. It should strike you that Henry is a bad value.
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What the SportsLine projections can't know is that there have been a lot of very positive tweets from beat writers about Samuel in training camp, which is the primary reason his ADP has taken off – on NFC over the last four days, he's going in the seventh round. Maybe that's a good thing. We haven't really gotten any new, actionable data about Samuel this preseason to cause his move up draft boards, so maybe it's best to stick with the pre-camp expectations. You can quibble with a projection that sees Samuel get just 79 targets, however Samuel is probably third in the pecking order for targets, and the No. 3 option in the Panthers' passing game has topped 80 targets just once in the last five seasons. Unless he overtakes D.J. Moore as the team's top wide receiver, Samuel might have trouble getting the work he needs.
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Playing with Andrew Luck, Ebron caught just 60.0% of his targets for 6.8 yards per target; it was the touchdowns that really saved him. With Jack Doyle healthy, he's not getting 110 targets again; and he's not scoring 14 touchdowns with Jacoby Brissett throwing it to him either. Ebron can finish as a top-12 tight end, sure, but that's not saying much. There's a better chance he's a touchdown-or-bust streamer than a lineup stalwart this season.
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