The last tournament in Florida before the Masters takes place this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. This will, sadly, be the first API without Palmer as he passed away late last fall. There will also be a celebration of his life and his legacy this week, though, as golfers honor the man who ushered in a modern era of professional golf.

Let’s take a look at this week’s contest.

Event information

What: Arnold Palmer Invitational | Where: Bay Hill, Florida | When: March 16-19

Participants and odds

  • Rory McIlroy: 7-1
  • Henrik Stenson: 9-1
  • Jason Day: 14-1
  • Hideki Matsuyama: 14-1
  • Rickie Fowler: 16-1
  • Justin Rose: 18-1
  • Thomas Pieters: 30-1
  • Paul Casey: 35-1
  • Brandt Snedeker: 35-1

Field strength: A-

This field is top heavy with that sixsome of McIlroy, Stenson, Day, Matsuyama, Fowler and Rose, but it drops off in a hurry which is reflected in the odds. There are some real heavyweights trying to steal one before Augusta National, but in two of the last five years a sleeper (Matt Every both times) has stolen the tournament. This field includes 29 of the top 50 golfers in the world.

Three stories to watch

1. Saying goodbye: The Arnold Palmer Invitational will never be the same with Mr. Palmer’s absence, but I also think this tournament could have a real legacy (depending on scheduling in the future). Modern players adore Palmer, and the guys in the field this week are clearly bent on paying tribute. The mood this week at Bay Hill will be strange, but it will also be telling about a future tournament that will exist without the man whose name it bears.

2. Close call: Each of the last three tournaments here have been decided by one stroke. You can expect scoring, too. The winner has not been single digits under par since 2011. With the rain that has been falling on Orlando, we could see a new scoring record set (current record is 20-under 264 set by Payne Stewart in 1987). Given the field we got and the conditions present, this tournament could be a repeat of last week’s thriller after a run of blowouts early in the season.

3. Top 10 dominance: Of the 10 available wins on the PGA Tour in 2017, seven have gone to golfers currently in the top 10 in the world. That’s insane, but it also means there’s a real race for pole position heading to Augusta. Among other golfers currently in the top 10, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Henrik Stenson are all in the field this week and all lack wins so far this calendar year. Will one of them join the group of champs speeding for Magnolia Lane?

Past winners

  • 2016: Jason Day
  • 2015: Matt Every
  • 2014: Matt Every
  • 2013: Tiger Woods
  • 2012: Tiger Woods

Two No. 1 golfers in the world ... and Matt Every ... twice. It seems crazy that Woods has won this recently, but don’t forget that he won five times in 2013 including this tournament which he has won eight times overall.

Let’s look at the picks this week.

Winner -- Henrik Stenson had a top 10 last week and has been lights out at Bay Hill in recent memory. Stenson has four (!) top-eight finishes at this tournament since 2013 and has been a scoring machine. Odds: 9-1

Top 10 -- Justin Rose has finished in the top 15 in four of his last five trips here and is coming off three top-five finishes in his last five starts. Odds: 18-1

Sleeper -- Francesco Molinari has finished in the top 20 in seven of his last eight PGA Tour events and has also finished in the top 20 in his last three trips to Bay Hill. This is a deep field, but these odds are nice. Odds: 50-1