Entering the 2024 PGA Tour season, Rory McIlroy is playing the best golf of his career over a two-year stretch. If that statement seems wrong, or perhaps slightly askew to you, you are not alone. Yes, McIlroy has won a lot since the start of 2022, but none of the four most important events have fallen his way. 2024 represents the 10th consecutive year he will enter stuck on four career major championships. In other words, perception tells a story that is not backed up by the numbers.
What do the numbers say?
It's surprising.
According to Data Golf, the best statistical year of Rory's career was in 2022 when he gained 2.58 strokes against the field. Checking in fourth on that list is 2023 when he gained 2.41. This is slightly more proficient than his astounding 2014-15 stretch when he gained 2.48 and 2.40, respectively. Of course, that was also a window in which he won two major championships.
So how does someone who is clearly playing at or beyond the peak of his career to this point duplicate the success of yesteryear when it comes to winning the biggest tournaments (including major championships)? The answer is as obvious as it is boring.
"He's just got to keep doing what he's been doing," Paul McGinley told the Scotsman recently. "His underlying stats have never been better. Even in 2014, his underlying stats through the bag have never been better than they are now. He's a more solid player. He's got less weaknesses in his game than he did when he was winning major championships, and he's just got to keep that standard up and wait for the golfing gods to shine on him and keep emotionally invested in what he is doing."
There are plenty of critiques for McIlroy. He has not closed out his two best chances at major championship wins since 2014. The first was at the Open Championship at St. Andrews last year. The second was the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club in 2023. He got chased down on the back nine by Cam Smith in the former. He lost by one stroke to Wyndham Clark in the latter.
But the real critique of McIlroy should not be those losses; giving yourself a chance at majors on the last nine holes of the tournament is all any superstar in golf is trying to do. No, the real critique is that from 2015-2021, McIlroy hardly gave himself any chances at all in the four most important tournaments of the year.
This juxtaposition leads to some incorrect deducing by amateur prognosticators and general Rory haters (of which there appear to be many on the internet!). Rory may or may not ever win a fifth major championship, but we should not conflate who he was from 2015-2021 at the majors when he accumulated an expected win total of 0.2 majors with who he has been the last two years when he accumulated an expected win total of 0.92 wins.
One other point here about the majors: Excluding the 2023 Masters, Rory beat or tied 993 of 1,019 competitors at the last seven majors he has played. If that continues, it's a matter of when, not if.
I generally fall on McGinley's side -- thinking about McIlroy in that, if he continues doing what he's doing, he will eventually fall into another major or two. Phil Mickelson's career seems to be instructive. Through their first 59 major championships, Mickelson totaled 4.4 expected wins at majors based on performance and three actual majors. Rory's numbers are incredibly similar at 4.3 expected and four actual. Mickelson currently has six majors, which is not a bad projection for McIlroy at this point in his career.
As for the rest, we mostly know what we're getting from him: around 2-4 victories worldwide for the year, over two strokes gained throughout and top 10 after top 10 at the majors. His performance has been normalized by his own consistency, but it has been remarkable. Over the last 10 years, there have been 26 instances of a calendar year in which an individual has gained 2.25 strokes or more. McIlroy has six of those (and McIlroy and Rahm combined have 11).
What else to consider for Rory in 2024
- The launch of TGL, the simulator golf league he founded with Tiger Woods, was postponed until 2025. This may or may not affect his tournament golf, but it certainly affects his time as there will not be any additional promotional obligations in which he's expected to engage.
- He enters 2024 off the best Ryder Cup performance of his career. We saw that the lousiest Ryder Cup of his career in 2021 led to the two best statistical years he has ever produced, so I'm curious to see what the opposite looks like.
- He recently resigned as a player director on the PGA Tour's Player Advisory Council. This is similar to the TGL. It may or may not affect his golf; I believe some of his motivation over the last two years was wrapped up in the PGA Tour-LIV Golf kerfuffle that is perhaps coming to an end. However, it will definitely be a talking point for folks depending on how he plays in 2024.
I'm generally optimistic about McIlroy's 2024. His floor is remarkably high and has consistently been so for over a decade. He is in the middle of one of the great modern careers and remains motivated to add to it in the form of major championships. There is a lingering sense that the PGA Tour-LIV battle lit a fire under him, but there are other ways to kindle that flame. As long as McIlroy continues to find them, he will remain one of the greats. The only question now, based on his major championship win total, is whether he'll be one of the greats of this era or one of the greats of all time.
