Entering a season, there's almost always a case to be made for a player who performed better than most people think the previous year -- perhaps even than the player himself thinks -- and is primed to win a lot in the new campaign. There are a few candidates for this spot as the 2024 PGA Tour season begins, but the most compelling is probably Collin Morikawa.
Morikawa quietly broke a two-year win drought in November at the Zozo Championship in Japan, and that victory was emblematic of how Morikawa played throughout the year.
Consider the following stats, which are somewhat difficult to believe.
| Year | Strokes Gained |
|---|---|
2023 | 1.93 |
2020 | 1.62 |
2021 | 1.51 |
2022 | 1.41 |
According to Data Golf, Morikawa's 2023 was his best year statistically, and by a pretty wide margin. Better than 2020 when he won the PGA Championship. Better than 2021 when he won The Open. Better than them all.
That this is true and resulted in so few wins is part of why I'm so bullish on his potential in 2024. It could be something that happens quickly, too. Morikawa tends to start hot and cool down as the year wears on. He had top-six finishes in three of his first four starts of 2023. He finished in the top five in his first two PGA Tour starts of 2022. He went T7-T7 in Hawaii to start 2021.
The Sentry has been a place where Morikawa has thrived, too. In four starts, his worst finish is T7. He probably should have won it a year ago when he shot 64-66-65 over the first three rounds, but a poor short game combined with Jon Rahm's closing 63 meant that he lost by two to the eventual Masters champion.
There is value in Morikawa this week. With everyone seemingly focused on Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland, Morikawa checks in at 12-1 to win The Sentry, according to SportsLine consensus. The same odds as Max Homa and Patrick Cantlay, and just shorter than Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele.
Morikawa quietly had two top 15s at majors last year, just like the year before that one and the one before that. He has become one of the most consistent high-level players in the world, and the numbers tend to show that.
While nobody can know how many times he will win in 2024, one could argue that Morikawa -- who, again, has two major championships among his six PGA Tour victories -- has never played better golf than he has played over the last year or so. That's scary and bodes well for somebody who tends to start strong in Hawaii and stay competitive at the most important events.
It may or may not result in wins this year, but it will almost certainly result in contention. Perhaps a lot of it. For somebody who is flying so far under the radar going into 2024, that's compelling for those looking for value and success early on this year.
