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Pete Alonso will aim for his third title when the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby convenes on Monday. T-Mobile Park hosts the festivities in Seattle, with the 2023 MLB All-Star break kicking off in style. Seven of the game's top hitters will challenge Alonso in the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby bracket, including No. 1 seed Luis Robert of the Chicago White Sox. The winner will earn $1 million, with the overall prize pool of $2.5 million providing plenty of incentive for powerful fireworks.

The 2023 Home Run Derby will begin at 8 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Alonso as the +300 favorite (risk $100 to win $300) in its latest 2023 MLB Home Run Derby odds, with Guerrero Jr. right behind at +450. Robert (+500), Julio Rodriguez (+550), and Adolis Garcia (+600) follow as top 2023 Major League Baseball Home Run Derby contenders, followed by Betts (+900), Randy Arozarena (+900), and Rutschman (+1600). Before you lock in your 2023 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby bets, you need to see what SportsLine baseball expert Matt Severance has to say, considering his mastery of MLB picks.

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, he quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past two MLB seasons, Severance is up an incredible $6,966 for $100 bettors. That includes a 68-32 run in the last 100 bets.

Now, he has studied the latest 2023 Home Run Derby odds and locked in his picks. Head to SportsLine now to see them.

2023 Home Run Derby expert preview

One player Severance is shying away from on Monday night is Pete Alonso. The two-time winner is priced as the favorite for a reason given his pedigree in the MLB Home Run Derby 2023, but Alonso hasn't been quite the same hitter in 2023. That includes a .218 batting average and .311 on-base percentage entering the final weekend of the first half, and Alonso has also been at less than full health due to a wrist issue.

In the first round, Alonso will face hometown favorite Julio Rodriguez, who beat Alonso head-to-head in 2022 and belted 81 home runs, second-most ever in any derby. From there, Alonso would have to wade through either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Mookie Betts. Guerrero Jr. is the all-time record holder with 91 home runs in a single Derby and Betts is a proven superstar with an MVP under his belt. Betts is also on pace to set a new personal best for home runs this season. See his other 2023 Home Run Derby picks at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Home Run Derby picks

Severance is staying away from Alonso, but he has a strong play on a surprising underdog winner. You can only get his analysis and selections at SportsLine.

So who wins the MLB Home Run Derby 2023? Visit SportsLine to see Severance's top 2023 Home Run Derby picks, all from the expert who has crushed his MLB picks over the past two seasons, and find out.

2023 MLB Home Run Derby odds, participants

See 2023 MLB Home Run Derby picks here

Pete Alonso +300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +450
Luis Robert +500
Julio Rodriguez +550
Adolis Garcia +600
Mookie Betts +900
Randy Arozarena +900
Adley Rutschman +1600

2023 MLB Home Run Derby bracket

1 Robert vs. 8 Rutschman
4 Garcia vs. 5 Arozarena 

3 Betts vs. 6 Guerrero
2 Alonso vs. 7 Rodriguez