The 2023 MLB trade deadline has officially come and gone. The biggest storyline was the Mets unloading two of their ace starting pitchers following a disappointing 2023 campaign. The most intriguing was the Astros reacquiring Justin Verlander from the Mets just a half season after Verlander left Houston to sign with New York.
The Astros are firmly entrenched as one of the top World Series contender this fall, and the addition of Verlander improves an already strong rotation. Earlier this week, the Rangers continued their World Series push by acquiring Max Scherzer from the Mets in a move that makes an already solid rotation that much stronger. With the Astros and Rangers both adding fuel to their pitching staffs, it certainly won't be a surprise if this year's World Series winner comes out of the state of Texas.
With the trade deadline officially in our rearview mirror, let's dive into Wednesday's picks in the MLB slate.
All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Reds at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Reds (+114)
- Key trend: The Reds are 6-3 in Brandon Williamson's last nine starts.
It's rare that I'm going to back a team that just got smoked 20-9 on the previous night, but I feel strongly about the Reds bouncing back in this spot.
The Reds should have no problem taking advantage of Wednesday's pitching matchup as Cubs send Drew Smyly to the mound. Smyly hasn't exactly had a stellar stretch over the last month. The veteran left-handed hurler has accumulated a 3.83 ERA over his last six starts, and he's given up at least four earned runs in four of those outings. Smyly has surrendered 11 earned runs in two starts against the Reds this season. He's failed to last more than 4 2/3 innings in either of those outings.
I'm banking on more of the same against this dangerous Reds lineup. After all, the Reds still managed to tally nine runs even after starting pitcher Ben Lively was shelled to the tune of 13 earned runs in just four innings. Cincinnati has the potential to put up a staggering number of runs on any given night given the fact that they've scored the sixth-most in all of baseball.
On the other hand, Reds starting pitcher Brandon Williamson has really been throwing the ball well lately. In five July starts, Williamson went 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA; the Reds won three of those games. The left-hander yielded two or fewer runs in that span, and he's coming off of an outing in which he held the Dodgers to just two earned runs across 5 2/3 innings. I'm more than willing to trust Williamson's strong stretch along with the Reds offense to bounce back.
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💰 More MLB picks
Athletics at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)
- Key trend: The over is 8-3-1 in the Dodgers' last 12 games.
While this is a larger number, the pitching matchup is definitely in our favor here. It's no secret that the Dodgers are one of the more lethal lineups that baseball has to offer. After all, they rank third in runs scored, while also slugging the second-most home runs. Los Angeles should have plenty of chances to put runs on the board on Wednesday when facing Oakland starter Hogan Harris.
Harris has often appeared in long relief in addition to serving as the starter in many of the A's games. Regardless of how he's entered a game, he's had his fair share of struggles. Harris carries a 2-5 record and a 6.07 ERA into Wednesday's outing. To make matters worse, he has been even worse on the road with a 7.15 ERA away from Oakland. He's allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last six outings, while also serving up 14 walks during that stretch.
It's not going to be a huge surprise if the Dodgers rack up a large amount of runs. However, they're also going to be prone to giving some up as well. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has been susceptible to getting knocked around as of late. Over his last five starts, Gonsolin has recorded a 6.39 ERA; in four of those outings, he yielded at least four earned runs. On top of that, the veteran starter owns 4.91 ERA in eight home starts on the year. Obviously, the Athletics offense isn't lighting the world on fire, but scratching a few runs across isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
White Sox at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Dane Dunning Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-146)
- Key trend: Dunning has registered four or fewer strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts.
The White Sox don't exactly take a ton of pitches as a team. In fact, they take the second-fewest per plate appearance. Given their free-swinging nature, I'm counting on Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning to struggle fanning his opponent Wednesday night.
Dunning isn't the type of pitcher that relies on strikeouts to get through a game. The veteran right-hander has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts. Dunning has also failed to reach the five-strikeout mark in five straight starts. The White Sox do register the 11th-most punch outs in the majors, but I'm expecting them to swinging early in at-bats a large majority of the time. Look for Dunning to continue to rely on ground balls to shut down the opposition.
