The All-Star break is here. The 30 clubs all played their final game of the first half Sunday. Monday is the Home Run Derby and Tuesday is the actual All-Star Game. The second half begins Friday.
Of course, the season is really more than halfway over. Most teams have played 88-89 games by now, and those 88-89 games have helped shape the postseason picture. Coming into the break, the AL East is the only division where the lead is smaller than six games. The second half may be all about the Wild Card races.
As a way to review the first half, let's look at each club's SportsLine postseason odds as of Monday and compare them to their postseason odds on Opening Day. Lots has changed, as you can imagine. The teams are listed smallest to largest in terms of postseason odds change.
30. New York Mets: 47-41
Opening Day odds: 68.5%
July 11 odds: 15.5%
Change: -53.0%
Coming into the season, the Mets were a legitimate World Series contender because of their rotation and the fact they were able to retain Yoenis Cespedes as a free agent. They do currently sit in the second Wild Card spot, but the rotation has not been as dynamite as expected -- Matt Harvey will soon undergo season-ending surgery, and both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are pitching with bone spurs in their elbows -- and the offense has gone through several extended slumps.
29. Tampa Bay Rays: 34-54
Opening Day odds: 48.6%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -48.6%
The Rays were on the postseason bubble up until about four weeks ago, when they started this miserable 3-22 stretch. Included in that 3-22 stretch is a franchise record 11-game losing streak. Not even the Devil Rays lost that many in a row. Tampa's trademark pitching -- both the rotation and bullpen -- has deserted them.
28. Oakland Athletics: 38-51
Opening Day odds: 31.9%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -31.9%
The AL was pretty wide open coming into the season. I thought the A's were the only team in the league that didn't have much of a chance to reach the postseason, and sure enough, they've had a poor first half and are currently playing for draft position. To be fair, Oakland has dealt with a ton of injuries this year. It also hasn't helped that Sonny Gray has not come close to repeating his Cy Young caliber 2015 season.
27. Minnesota Twins: 32-56
Opening Day odds: 30.0%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -30.0%
SportsLine was relatively optimistic about the Twins coming into this season. The system gave them higher postseason odds than the Red Sox, for example. Instead, the Twins have the worst record and the worst pitching staff in the AL. Minnesota is on pace to allow 858 runs this season, the most by any team since the 2012 Rockies (890). Top prospect Byron Buxton's poor play (and recent injury) must be particularly disconcerting.
26. New York Yankees: 44-44
Opening Day odds: 30.3%
July 11 odds: 0.4%
Change: -29.9%
The Yankees' streak of consecutive winning seasons is very much in jeopardy. They've had a winning record in each of the last 23 seasons, which is the second longest such streak in history. Back in the day the Yankees had a winning record in 39 straight seasons (!) from 1925-64. The offense has not been productive -- Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez combined for 15 homers in the first half after hitting 64 total in 2015 -- and the pitching staff outside Masahiro Tanaka and the big three relievers has been suspect.
25. Houston Astros: 48-41
Opening Day odds: 62.0%
July 11 odds: 33.5%
Change: -28.5%
What an up-and-down season for the Astros. Actually, I should say down-and-up. They started the season 17-28, but have gone 31-13 since to climb back into the thick of the postseason race. SportsLine was high on the Astros coming into the season and that slow start did happen. Those early losses count in the standings, which is why their postseason odds have dropped so much despite their recent hot streak.
24. Kansas City Royals: 45-43
Opening Day odds: 37.1%
July 11 odds: 12.4%
Change: -24.7%
The defending World Series champs have been hampered by injuries (Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, etc.) and also an underperforming rotation. Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, and Chris Young have all taken considerable steps back this season. Perhaps all those extra -- and intense -- innings last postseason are taking their toll?
23. Los Angeles Angels: 37-52
Opening Day odds: 21.7%
July 11 odds: 0.1%
Change: -21.6%
Not even Mike Trout can save this sinking ship. A poorly constructed roster and a bevy of injuries have the Angels in the AL West cellar, and it doesn't help that they have the game's worst farm system. New GM Billy Eppler has his work cut out for him. Trout is under contract through 2020. Will they be able to get back to the postseason by then?
22. St. Louis Cardinals: 46-42
Opening Day odds: 85.5%
July 11 odds: 65.2%
Change: -20.3%
This constitutes a "bad" season for the Cardinals. The rotation outside Carlos Martinez has been shaky and both Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk are falling short of expectations, and yet the Cardinals are right in the thick of the Wild Card race. Are they going to win the division? Nah, almost certainly not at this point. But the emergence of Stephen Piscotty and Aledmys Diaz, as well as the continued excellence of Matt Carpenter, have the Cardinals in the playoff hunt.
21. Seattle Mariners: 45-44
Opening Day odds: 26.0%
July 11 odds: 8.0%
Change: -18.3%
Is there a more confusing team in baseball? I feel every year the Mariners look capable of 90 wins or 90 losses. At one point the Mariners were 28-18 and 1 1/2 games up in the AL West. Now they're a essentially a .500 ballclub barely hanging on in the Wild Card race. Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager have all been truly excellent. The rest of the team? Not so much. Losing Felix Hernandez to a calf injury in late May has not helped matters. The team hopes he can return early in the second half.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: 51-40
Opening Day odds: 88.4%
July 11 odds: 71.9%
Change: -16.5%
Is there a more valuable player in baseball than Clayton Kershaw? The Dodgers are 14-2 when Kershaw starts and 37-38 in all other games. Their offense has sputtered for long stretches of time and injuries have forced them to use 12 different starting pitchers, the most in baseball. And yet, Los Angeles currently sits in the first Wild Card spot and is within striking distance in the NL West. They also have the resources (money and prospects) to add an impact piece or two at the trade deadline.
19. Arizona Diamondbacks: 38-52
Opening Day odds: 6.7%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -6.7%
SportsLine was not impressed by Arizona's huge offseason. The system did not give them much of a chance to make the postseason even after adding Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, and, wouldn't you know it, the D-Backs are a last place club at the All-Star break. Miller has been an unmitigated disaster and losing the multi-tooled A.J. Pollock to an elbow injury in spring training has been a huge blow.
18. Philadelphia Phillies: 42-48
Opening Day odds: 1.7%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -1.7%
The Phillies got off to a nice 22-15 start to the season and were a feel-good story for a while, but they've since gone 20-33 and crashed back to Earth. They're in the middle of a massive rebuild and no one expected them to contend in 2016. We're starting to see the fruits of their rebuild in the rotation, namely Aaron Nolan, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vincent Velasquez. They're bad, there's no doubt about it, but at least now there's some young talent on the roster.
17. Miami Marlins: 47-41
Opening Day odds: 2.2%
July 11 odds: 0.7%
Change: -1.5%
The Marlins are tied with the Mets for the second Wild Card spot, though SportsLine doesn't love the talent on their roster. For what it's worth, I like the Marlins more than SportsLine and consider them a serious postseason threat. They could really use another starting pitcher or two though. Also, would any NL team benefit more from having the DH this year? Once Dee Gordon returns the Marlins will have to find ways to get Derek Dietrich (129 OPS+) and Ichiro Suzuki (121 OPS+) into the lineup regularly.
16. Milwaukee Brewers: 38-49
Opening Day odds: 0.8%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -0.8%
Another rebuilding team. The Brewers came into the season with tiny postseason odds and they've somehow become even tinier. Ex-Astros Jonathan Villar and Chris Carter have been nice pick-ups, ditto 31-year-old rookie Junior Guerra. Milwaukee is still early in their rebuild and there's a lot of work left to be done.
15. San Diego Padres: 38-51
Opening Day odds: 0.5%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -0.5%
Well, we know one person who expected the Padres to contend this year: team chairman Ron Fowler. Fowler called his club "miserable failures" back in June, days before James Shields was traded away. GM A.J. Preller figures to be active before the trade deadline, with veterans like Melvin Upton and Andrew Cashner among the most likely to be dealt.
14. Cincinnati Reds: 32-57
Opening Day odds: 0.1%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: -0.1%
The middle of this list is populated by rebuilding teams that came into the season with small playoff odds. The Reds have a historically bad bullpen -- the bullpen's 5.73 ERA is 8th worst among the 1,476 bullpen seasons since 1961 -- but are getting strong seasons from Zack Cozart and Jay Bruce, both of whom could be on the move to the trade deadline. If not on the move then heavily shopped. Those two plus Joey Votto and Adam Duvall have been the highlights of Cincinnati's season by far.
13. Atlanta Braves: 31-58
Opening Day odds: 0.0%
July 11 odds: 0.0%
Change: 0.0%
The Braves are our "zero" team. Their postseason odds haven't changed at all because, well, they're terrible and everyone knew they would be terrible. They have baseball's worst record and there's talk they may trade Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino, their best starter and reliever, at the deadline for even more prospects. It's hard to see how the Braves will contend in year one of SunTrust Park next season.
12. Colorado Rockies: 40-48
Opening Day odds: 0.0%
July 11 odds: 0.1%
Change: +0.1%
We are now into the positives, which means all the teams from here on out have improved their postseason odds. The Rockies, of course, have improved their odds negligibly. They seem to be in a perpetual rebuild despite rostering some bonafide stars over the years, from Larry Walker to Troy Tulowitzki to Carlos Gonzalez to Nolan Arenado. Colorado is still trying to crack the code of pitching at altitude.
11. Washington Nationals: 54-36
Opening Day odds: 95.5%
July 11 odds: 97.8%
Change: +2.3%
SportsLine loved the Nationals coming into the season and they've done nothing to make the system look silly. Daniel Murphy has been one of the best hitters in baseball, Stephen Strasburg is a Cy Young contender, and both Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark have been excellent as well. Even Bryce Harper has been great. His "down" year is .256/.399/.491 (134 OPS+) with 19 homers in 86 games. That's a career year for most.
10. Chicago White Sox: 45-43
Opening Day odds: 1.8%
July 11 odds: 7.3%
Change: +5.5%
The White Sox got off to such a great start (23-10) before crashing hard in the middle of May. Chris Sale and Jose Quintana have been carrying a ballclub that has been inconsistent in all phase of the game this year. Their offense has been streaky and the rest of their pitching staff has been hit or miss. Chicago is 4 1/2 games out of the second Wild Card spot, so they're going to need some help at the trade deadline.
9. Toronto Blue Jays: 51-40
Opening Day odds: 69.0%
July 11 odds: 88.5%
Change: +19.5%
After a slow start to the season, the Blue Jays are back to bludgeoning teams with offense. They've been doing it without Jose Bautista the last few weeks too. (He's on the DL with a toe injury.) Josh Donaldson is having another MVP caliber year and Edwin Encarnacion has been a run producing machine. Toronto has also gotten excellent work from their rotation thanks in part to the emergence of Aaron Sanchez. They need to add some bullpen help and get some of their bottom of the order hitters going.
8. Detroit Tigers: 46-43
Opening Day odds: 3.9%
July 11 odds: 24.8%
Change: +20.9%
SportsLine was not a big fan of the Tigers coming into the season. They've been one of the streakier teams in baseball this summer, and they're still right in the middle of the Wild Card race. Early AL Rookie of the Year favorite Michael Fulmer has given the team a huge shot in the arm, which they've needed because other starters like Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey aren't pulling their weight. The emergence of Nick Castellanos has helped mitigate Justin Upton's season-long slump and J.D. Martinez's broken elbow.
7. Chicago Cubs: 53-35
Opening Day odds: 66.4%
July 11 odds: 90.2%
Change: +23.8%
At one point the Cubs had close to a 100 percent chance to make the playoff according to SportsLine, but their recent slump has knocked them down a bit. In fact, since their insane 25-6 start, the Cubbies are a sub-.500 team (28-29). They're still very good of course, and they're very likely to win the NL Central, but at some point Jason Heyward needs to hit and Jake Arrieta has to snap out of his recent slump.
6. Cleveland Indians: 52-36
Opening Day odds: 68.9%
July 11 odds: 96.9%
Change: +28.0%
The Indians have been around for 115 years now, and earlier this month they managed to set a new franchise record with a 14-game winning streak. They'd never done that before. Led by the baseball's preeminent power rotation -- the Indians have the rotation everyone expected the Mets to have, basically -- the Indians have a comfortable 6 1/2 game lead in the AL Central even though Michael Brantley, their best player, has been limited to 11 games by offseason shoulder surgery and a setback.
5. Boston Red Sox: 49-38
Opening Day odds: 29.1%
July 11 odds: 57.8%
Change: +28.7%
The Red Sox are getting MVP caliber performances from David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr., and knuckleballer Steven Wright leads the AL in ERA, yet Boston is not atop the AL East. They're two games back of the Orioles and sitting in a Wild Card spot. Dave Dombrowski has already used the trade market to add bench (Aaron Hill) and bullpen (Brad Ziegler) help. Now expect him to address the rotation before the deadline. The need is obvious.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 46-43
Opening Day odds: 30.7%
July 11 odds: 61.2%
Change: +30.5%
The Pirates are red hot to close out the first half, winning 12 of their last 16 games. They've trimmed their deficit in the division from 14 games to 7 1/2 games in 11 days. Clearly though, this is a team that need help, especially in the rotation. Gerrit Cole (triceps) figures to be back soon and top prospect Tyler Glasnow recently made his MLB debut, but they need more than that.
3. San Francisco Giants: 57-33
Opening Day odds: 60.4%
July 11 odds: 97.3%
Change: +36.9%
Since April 22, an admittedly arbitration date, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 49-23, well ahead of the second best team (Indians at 45-29). The offseason additions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have worked out as well as the team could have possibly hoped, and of course Madison Bumgarner continues to be excellent. Buster Posey and the Brandons (Belt and Crawford) are carrying an offense that has been without the injured Hunter Pence for much of the year. The biggest need in the second half is obvious: bullpen help and good health.
2. Baltimore Orioles: 51-36
Opening Day odds: 31.5%
July 11 odds: 79.2%
Change: +47.7%
It's amazing to me the O's are in first place given their rotation. Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman have been good, but otherwise manager Buck Showalter has had to cross his fingers and pray the other three days. MVP candidate Manny Machado and sluggers Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo are leading baseball's best power hitting offense (MLB high 137 HR). Clearly though, Baltimore needs rotation help. Without it, holding off the Blue Jays and Red Sox in the AL East will be extremely difficult.
1. Texas Rangers: 54-36
Opening Day odds: 7.9%
July 11 odds: 90.9%
Change: +83.0%
The biggest riser in the eyes of SportsLine -- by a mile at that -- are the Rangers, who the system expected to finish under .500 coming into the season. Instead, the Rangers have the best record in the AL and a 5 1/2 game AL West lead. They've done that while getting little from the first base and DH positions -- Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder have an 83 OPS+ and a 67 OPS+, respectively -- and only three starts from Yu Darvish. Good health and bullpen help is the priority here going into the second half.
