Major League Baseball's offseason is in full swing, and that means everyone is thinking about the future. In most cities, that means next season; in some, though, it means the bigger picture, the next three to five years. You're either selling wins or you're selling hope, the old saying goes. We here at CBS Sports like to provide as much hope as we can around this time of the winter by evaluating each team's farm system.
Of course, that doesn't mean every team has an equally good farm system -- some, as you'll find out throughout this process, are lacking in that respect. It does mean, nevertheless, that CBS Sports will be spending the next few weeks examining the top three prospects in each organization. We define "prospects" as retaining their rookie eligibility for the 2023 season, so if a young player is missing that's likely why.
These lists and evaluations are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, and player development types. There's also firsthand evaluation and bias thrown into the mix. Keep in mind that player evaluation is a hard task, and it's fine if you disagree with the rankings. These are opinions, and they have no real bearing on the future. You can check out our winter top 20 list by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's get to it by dissecting the San Francisco Giants.
1. Marco Luciano, No. 15 on the top 20 (2023 seasonal age: 21)
The book on Luciano remains the same as it's been for a while now: he's a promising hitter who seems highly unlikely to remain at shortstop for the long haul. He had an above-average year at the plate in High-A, batting .263/.339/.459 with 10 home runs and 10 doubles in 57 games. (He was limited by back issues on multiple occasions.) Luciano shows off a good arm on defense, but his footwork leaves much to be desired and many evaluators feel he'll eventually have to move to third base. That shouldn't be an issue for him provided that he continues to develop into a plus hitter. Luciano figures to get a crack at Double-A to begin next season.
2. Kyle Harrison, LHP, No. 17 on the top 20 (2023 seasonal age: 21)
The Giants selected Harrison with the 85th pick in the 2021 draft and then dished out nearly $2.5 million to buy out his commitment to UCLA. So far, that looks like a prudent investment. Harrison struck out an unfathomable 15 batters per nine in 25 starts split between High- and Double-A, amassing a 2.71 ERA in 113 innings. He has a high-quality three-pitch mix, led by a lively mid-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider that benefits from a flat release point. Harrison needs to continue to improve his command (he walked about four batters per nine) and will need to average more than 4.5 innings per appearance in order to move up the list. If he can check those boxes, he'll solidify himself as one of the most promising arms in the minors.
3. Casey Schmitt, 3B (2023 seasonal age: 24)
Schmitt, a second-round pick in 2020, is a high-quality defensive third baseman. That much is for certain. He has a big arm (he doubled as the closer at San Diego State) and he shows both the hands and feet to remain an asset there for the long haul. Offensively, evaluators are more split on his likeliest outcome despite him hitting .293/.365/.489 across three levels in 2022. The optimistic view is that he'll grow into an above-average hitter, both in respect to contact and power; the pessimistic one, and the one that lines up better with his underlying data, has him playing closer to (or perhaps even below) average. Either way, Schmitt's glove will earn him a wide berth at the hot corner.
