We've dipped our toes into the second half of the 2018 season, so why not check in with our compadres at SportsLine (@SportsLine on Twitter) and have a look at the latest playoff projections? Why not indeed.
First up, let's check out the American League:
AMERICAN LEAGUE | POWER RANK | FULL SEASON PROJECTION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POSTSEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
RANK | SIM% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | ROS WIN | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | WIN AL ODDS | AL% | WORLD SERIES ODDS | WS% | |
Boston Red Sox (70-31) | 1 | 66.8% | 107.5 | 54.5 | 66.3% | 61.4% | 72.0% | 100.0% | 9/4, 30.8% | 27.39% | 9/2, 18.2% | 15.81% |
New York Yankees (63-34) | 2 | 64.4% | 104.0 | 58.0 | 64.2% | 63.1% | 28.0% | 99.9% | 3/1, 25% | 21.87% | 6/1, 14.3% | 11.12% |
Houston Astros (66-36) | 3 | 62.6% | 101.1 | 60.9 | 62.4% | 58.5% | 92.5% | 99.4% | 9/4, 30.8% | 25.17% | 9/2, 18.2% | 13.18% |
Cleveland Indians (54-44) | 5 | 58.5% | 95.1 | 66.9 | 58.7% | 64.2% | 99.7% | 99.7% | 4/1, 20% | 22.18% | 8/1, 11.1% | 11.64% |
Seattle Mariners (60-40) | 7 | 56.8% | 91.4 | 70.6 | 56.4% | 50.6% | 6.5% | 71.9% | 8/1, 11.1% | 2.57% | 16/1, 5.9% | 0.85% |
Oakland Athletics (57-43) | 8 | 54.6% | 87.7 | 74.3 | 54.1% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 24.9% | 15/1, 6.2% | 0.72% | 30/1, 3.2% | 0.26% |
Tampa Bay Rays (50-49) | 15 | 50.6% | 82.0 | 80.0 | 50.6% | 50.7% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 250/1, 0.4% | 0.05% | 500/1, 0.2% | 0.01% |
Los Angeles Angels (50-50) | 17 | 50.4% | 81.6 | 80.4 | 50.4% | 51.0% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 150/1, 0.7% | 0.02% | 300/1, 0.3% | 0.00% |
Toronto Blue Jays (46-52) | 20 | 47.6% | 77.4 | 84.6 | 47.8% | 49.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 500/1, 0.2% | 0.00% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.00% |
Minnesota Twins (44-53) | 21 | 47.4% | 77.0 | 85.0 | 47.5% | 50.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 250/1, 0.4% | 0.03% | 500/1, 0.2% | 0.03% |
Texas Rangers (42-58) | 22 | 44.7% | 72.8 | 89.2 | 45.0% | 49.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2500/1, 0% | 0.00% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Detroit Tigers (42-59) | 26 | 41.1% | 66.4 | 95.6 | 41.0% | 40.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2500/1, 0% | 0.00% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Chicago White Sox (34-64) | 28 | 37.0% | 60.9 | 101.1 | 37.6% | 42.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Kansas City Royals (30-68) | 29 | 32.9% | 53.9 | 108.1 | 33.3% | 37.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Baltimore Orioles (28-72) | 30 | 30.1% | 49.0 | 113.0 | 30.2% | 33.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% | 9999/1, 0% | 0.00% |
So here's how the playoff field in the AL is currently forecast by the SportsLine Projection System:
- Wild Card Game: Mariners at Yankees
- ALDS: Indians vs. Astros
- ALDS: Wild-card winner vs. Red Sox
This hasn't changed much since last time, as the AL playoff alignment has been pretty stable for some time. Stated another way, the sims see the Red Sox, Astros, Indians, Yankees winning the pennant almost 97 percent of the time. The A's of course continue to narrow the game between themselves and the Mariners, and we're still projected to have three 100-win teams in the AL. The Indians are projected to have the top winning percentage the rest of the way. They're legit, no doubt, but that's also a function of their comparatively easy schedule.
Now to the National League:
NATIONAL LEAGUE | POWER RANK | FULL SEASON PROJECTION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POSTSEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
RANK | SIM% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | ROS WIN | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | WIN NL ODDS | NL% | WORLD SERIES ODDS | WS% | |
Chicago Cubs (58-40) | 4 | 60.0% | 97.2 | 64.8 | 60.0% | 61.3% | 93.7% | 99.2% | 3/1, 25% | 27.98% | 7/1, 12.5% | 13.00% |
Los Angeles Dodgers (55-44) | 6 | 58.0% | 94.6 | 67.4 | 58.4% | 62.9% | 88.1% | 96.6% | 5/2, 28.6% | 42.20% | 6/1, 14.3% | 24.21% |
Milwaukee Brewers (56-45) | 9 | 54.1% | 87.1 | 74.9 | 53.8% | 51.0% | 5.5% | 63.2% | 9/1, 10% | 4.82% | 18/1, 5.3% | 1.89% |
Philadelphia Phillies (55-43) | 10 | 53.5% | 86.0 | 76.0 | 53.1% | 48.4% | 39.8% | 56.3% | 6/1, 14.3% | 5.86% | 14/1, 6.7% | 1.82% |
Atlanta Braves (53-43) | 11 | 53.1% | 85.7 | 76.3 | 52.9% | 49.5% | 36.8% | 51.5% | 6/1, 14.3% | 5.34% | 14/1, 6.7% | 1.41% |
Washington Nationals (49-49) | 13 | 52.3% | 85.2 | 76.8 | 52.6% | 56.5% | 23.3% | 38.1% | 12/1, 7.7% | 5.73% | 25/1, 3.8% | 2.30% |
Arizona Diamondbacks (54-46) | 12 | 52.3% | 84.5 | 77.5 | 52.1% | 49.2% | 6.3% | 36.0% | 10/1, 9.1% | 3.65% | 20/1, 4.8% | 1.13% |
Colorado Rockies (53-46) | 14 | 51.8% | 83.5 | 78.5 | 51.5% | 48.3% | 4.1% | 27.3% | 12/1, 7.7% | 2.69% | 25/1, 3.8% | 0.78% |
St Louis Cardinals (50-49) | 18 | 50.3% | 81.7 | 80.3 | 50.4% | 50.3% | 0.5% | 13.0% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.70% | 80/1, 1.2% | 0.25% |
San Francisco Giants (51-50) | 16 | 50.4% | 81.3 | 80.7 | 50.2% | 49.7% | 1.5% | 12.2% | 20/1, 4.8% | 0.86% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.27% |
Pittsburgh Pirates (51-49) | 19 | 49.3% | 79.7 | 82.3 | 49.2% | 46.3% | 0.3% | 6.3% | 50/1, 2% | 0.18% | 100/1, 1% | 0.05% |
Cincinnati Reds (43-56) | 23 | 44.3% | 71.9 | 90.1 | 44.4% | 45.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1000/1, 0.1% | 0.00% | 2000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
New York Mets (40-56) | 24 | 43.2% | 70.3 | 91.7 | 43.4% | 46.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2500/1, 0% | 0.00% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
Miami Marlins (43-58) | 25 | 42.2% | 68.6 | 93.4 | 42.4% | 42.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2500/1, 0% | 0.00% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
San Diego Padres (41-61) | 27 | 39.9% | 64.9 | 97.1 | 40.1% | 39.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2500/1, 0% | 0.00% | 5000/1, 0% | 0.00% |
And the current projected NL playoff bracket:
- Wild Card Game: Braves at Brewers
- NLDS: Phillies vs. Dodgers
- NLDS: Wild-card winner vs. Cubs
The system has always been high on the Dodgers, and this time around they have the highest World Series percentage by a large margin. (Part of this reflects the fact that the AL is so hotly competitive at the top.) Elsewhere, note that down-to-the-wire race in the NL East, where the Phillies, Braves are all projected to finish within a game of each other. The Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Cardinals are also expected to be in the mix for that road wild-card berth. If we wind up with a play-in game for a division title or a wild-card spot, then it's very likely to be the NL that gives it to us.
Developing!
