In 2023, the St. Louis Cardinals endured their first losing season since 2007 and their first 90-loss season since 1990. Such struggles are, suffice it to say, not familiar to the organization or its fans who aren't of a certain vintage. As such, there's much pressure on the Cardinals to reverse course and return not only to contention but also to the top of the National League Central. On another level, the Cardinals haven't had losing records in back-to-back full seasons (i.e., 1994 and 1995 don't count for these purposes), since 1958-59. If 2024 goes awry, that streak of sorts will end.
With the scene amply set, let's have a closer look at the 2024 Cardinals.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 71-91 (last in NL Central)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 85.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +3200
Projected lineup
- Brendan Donovan, DH
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
- Nolan Gorman, 2B
- Nolan Arenado, 3B
- Willson Contreras, C
- Alec Burleson, LF
- Jordan Walker, RF
- Dylan Carlson, CF
- Masyn Winn, SS
Last season, the Cardinals ranked 19th in MLB in runs scored and 13th in OPS. On the run-scoring front, the Cards suffered from poor sequencing and some fluke-ishly bad numbers in certain clutch spots. As well, their batted-ball quality up and down the lineup suggests they should've put more runs on the board than the 719 they did. This isn't any kind of juggernaut lineup, but it should rank in the upper-third of the league this coming season. The lineup above will look a bit different once guys get healthy (more on that below). It's possible speed-merchant prospect Victor Scott II cracks the roster as the center fielder, but right now signs point to Carlson.
Projected rotation
- Miles Mikolas, RHP
- Kyle Gibson, RHP
- Lance Lynn, RHP
- Steven Matz, LHP
- Zack Thompson, LHP
Once healthy, Sonny Gray, the Cardinals' marquee free-agent addition, will top this rotation, which would likely push Thompson to the bullpen or the Memphis rotation. There's been a great deal of turnover in the rotation, which makes last year's numbers not especially illuminating. That said, we'll hit you with them anyway. The St. Louis rotation last season ranked 26th in MLB with a starters' ERA of 5.08 and 22nd with a starters' FIP of 4.61. Gone from last year's mix are Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery (traded to Texas at the deadline), Dakota Hudson, and Jake Woodford, who combined to make 82 starts for the Cardinals in 2023.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: RHP Ryan Helsley
- Setup: RHP Giovanny Gallegos, RHP Andrew Kittredge, LHP JoJo Romero
- Middle: RHP Andre Pallante, RHP Riley O'Brien, RHP Nick Robertson
- Long: RHP Ryan Fernandez
Last year's Cardinals bullpen ranked 23rd in the majors with a relief ERA of 4.47 and 18th in the majors with a relief FIP of 4.16. Notable departures include Jordan Hicks, Drew VerHagen, and Chris Stratton (traded at the deadline in the Montgomery deal). Outside of the bigger names who return, the Cardinals this offseason added upside, swing-and-miss, and depth via younger relievers with options. It's a high-risk, high-reward approach.
Will the rotation overhaul work?
Long-term, the Cardinals need to revamp their developmental approach to pitching to get it on par with the more advanced orgs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, and Twins. In the meantime, they addressed the rotation deficits of last season by adding veteran certainties in Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and old friend Lance Lynn. Last season, 29 pitchers made more than 30 starts, and the Cardinals now employ four of the them -- those three new additions plus holdover Miles Mikolas. Lefty Steven Matz is also part of the rotation. Now for two key observations on this rebuilt starting five:
- Last season, these five hurlers -- Gray, Mikolas, Gibson, Lynn, and Matz -- combined for an ERA of 4.47 when starting. That's significantly better than what the Cardinals got from their starters last season, but it's still not optimal.
- Matz, who turns 33 in late May, is the youngest member of the rotation as planned. Being so long in the tooth raises the risk of age-related decline, obviously, and it also at least theoretically raises the risk of injury.
Much will hinge on whether Lynn can bounce back from his deeply disappointing 2023. He figures to have much better luck when it comes to seeing so many fly balls leave the yard, and the Cardinals are betting heavily on that being the case. As well, Mikolas has shown improved velocity this spring and spent the winter working on a refined slider. He'll need such help if he's going to be a worthy No. 2 behind Gray.
Is this going to be a year of injuries for St. Louis?
The Cardinals weren't an especially injury-riddled team last year, bit this spring has set a grimmer tone for 2024. Sonny Gray will miss his Opening Day turn because of a hamstring strain, and it's a reminder that Gray has been occasionally prone to malady in the past. As well, left fielder Lars Nootbaar -- one of the team's top on-base threats -- is sidelined with a couple of rib fractures, and he's in doubt to start the season (he's shown a troubling knack for impact-related injuries in his young career). Tommy Edman, the Gold Glove super-utility player who's been tabbed as the team's primary center fielder for this season, has suffered setbacks in his recovery from offseason wrist surgery and doesn't yet have a clear timetable. Keynan Middleton, of the club's key veteran bullpen acquisitions, is out with a forearm strain and won't be ready in time for Opening Day.
Elsewhere, Matz is an established injury risk, and closer Ryan Hesley dealt with arm trouble last season. Nolans Arenado and Gorman were bedeviled by back pain in 2023, and Gorman in particular has been prone to back issues for some time. These are all varying degrees of worrisome, and nothing could undo a bounce-back season in St. Louis quite like a roster shot through with injuries for much of the season.
What would make for a successful season?
As noted, there's much pressure for the Cardinals to make good on their efforts to return to contention. That's perhaps especially the case after manager Oli Marmol's oddly timed contract extension. What the Cardinals need is a division title and to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2019. If they don't make one or both of those happen, will a rebuild and front-office shake-up be in the offing? That's a possibility worth pondering.
