The first UFC pay-per-view of the year goes down Saturday when UFC 283 lands in Brazil. The card isand littered with familiar names and top talents.
The headliner sees former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira look to reclaim gold against rising contender Jamahal Hill with the vacant title at stake. Jiri Prochazka suffered a nasty shoulder injury in training camp that is expected to have him out of action for a year, so the Czech native vacated the title. UFC 282 was supposed to crown a new champion when Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev met, but the two battled to a disputed draw, leading to Saturday night's main event.
Plus, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno will renew their rivalry for a fourth time with the flyweight title at stake. Figueiredo got the upperhand in the last meeting, bringing this heated series to a 1-1-1 split.
While those two title fights will get tons of attention, the rest of the undercard has plenty of intriguing matchups for every fight fan. Former title challenger Gilbert Burns is back when he takes on Neil Magny. And former champion Jessica Andrade returns to where she claimed the 115-pound title when she takes on Lauren Murphy at flyweight. Plus, light heavyweight finishers Johnny Walker and Paul Craig will slug it out in the PPV opener.
Every big UFC card draws plenty of attention at the sportsbooks, and a card as big as UFC 283 may have even more people than usual looking to make a wager or two. With that in mind, we have you covered with our picks for the best bet for each main card fight with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
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Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker
Pick: Either fighter to win in Round 1 (-120)
While there's certainly some temptation to throw a bit of money at Craig to pull the upset, there's one running theme that makes the idea of a first-round finish for either fighter tempting. Nineteen of Walker's 26 career fights have ended in the first round. For Craig, it's 14 of 22. That means the fighters have had a combined 69% of their fights finish in the first round, which includes both fighters having suffered multiple first-round losses.
Craig is a dangerous submission artist who could take advantage of Walker's often iffy fight IQ, but he's also been stopped with strikes three times in the first round, which is what Walker will be looking to do. Walker has only been submitted once in his career, but his tendency to get too aggressive could see him fall right into one of Craig's traps.
Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy
Pick: Andrade by decision (+140)
Despite her title shot in September 2021, Murphy's run over the last three years doesn't get a lot of attention. During that time, she has gone 6-1, with the lone loss coming in that title shot against Valentina Shevchenko. In her most recent outing, Murphy beat Miesha Tate to remain near the top of the flyweight division.
Still, Andrade is simply the better fighter. Andrade is more dangerous bell-to-bell and also does a better job of making clear statements of dominance over the course of a fight. Where Murphy edges a lot of close fights, Andrade clearly beats fighters at that same level of competition. However, Murphy has only been stopped once in her career (by Shevchenko) so the chances of her putting in a gutsy performance but losing on the scorecards seem likely.
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny
Pick: Fight to not go the distance (-135)
Burns will enter the Octagon as a very heavy favorite and it's easy to see why. He has the ability to finish the fight from anywhere at any moment and has proven he can hang with the elite of the welterweight division. Magny has pulled off some surprises in the past, but he's far less of a dangerous fighter in terms of being a threat to finish the fight at any moment. That should allow Burns to be a bit more open with his offense, especially as he is unlikely to be too concerned if striking exchanges lead to stretches of grappling.
If your sportsbook is offering a line on Burns to win by knockout or submission, it's likely worth a bet. That said, we'll recommend simply taking the fight to not go the distance, expecting Burns to catch Magny for either a knockout or to set up a submission. There's also a little bit of wiggle room left for the possibility that Magny pulls out a surprise submission or knockout.
Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Pick: Moreno ML (-120)
The rivalry between Moreno and Figueiredo has. Moreno was a bit off in their third meeting and still had a reasonable argument to have won a narrow decision. The Mexican fighter should be ready for the fourth fight, and assuming he doesn't start too slowly, should perform better in this fight than he did in the third outing and make a clearer case for his status as the best flyweight in the UFC. The images of Figueiredo during his weight cut are also causing some concern as he looks very sucked out well ahead of having to actually get on the scale.
Keep an eye on the lines as the fight draws near. Moreno loses value if the line goes any higher than -120 and if Figueiredo gets up to anywhere near +115, it's likely the right move to make a play on him at that time. These two men are too evenly matched to see the odds shift any more toward Moreno than where they currently stand.
Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill
Pick: Teixeira ML (+115)
Teixeira averages 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. In his three most recent fights, Teixeira took down Jiri Prochazka five times, Jan Blachowicz twice, and Thiago Santos four times. In his most recent fight, Hill was taken down by Santos six times. In Hill's six UFC wins, counting the victory over Klidson Abreu that was later overturned because of a failed drug test, only one came against a fighter who was coming off of a win and that was against Ovince Saint Preux, who was on a 2-3 run entering the fight. We also aren't far removed from Hill getting submitted by Paul Craig.
That Teixeira is entering as an underdog in this fight simply makes no sense. He is tough, as seen in his absolute war with Prochazka, he is experienced and he is excellent in the areas where Hill is weakest. Until Teixeira shows that age has actually caught up to him, there's no reason to theorize that he will lose because it has. Take the veteran to score a win in front of a rowdy Brazilian crowd.
Who wins UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 283, all from the incomparable expert who's up nearly $12,000 on MMA in the past four years, and find out.