UFC 292 is on the horizon as Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley headline the TD Garden in Boston this weekend. Saturday's showdown is a modern-day masterclass in grappling vs. striking.
Sterling has emerged as arguably the greatest bantamweight in UFC history. The defending champ has a record-setting 14 bantamweight wins, looks to extend his record nine-fight winning streak in the division and boasts the most bantamweight title defenses in promotional history. Another successful defense ties him with TJ Dillashaw for all-time wins in bantamweight title fights. He also holds records for control time and total fight time.
Don't be distracted by O'Malley's flashy personality. "Suga" is statistically the most impressive striker in bantamweight history. O'Malley holds the all-time records for significant striking accuracy, strikes landed per minute and positive striking differential.
Can't get enough boxing and MMA? Get the latest in the world of combat sports from two of the best in the business. Subscribe to Morning Kombat with Luke Thomas and Brian Campbell for the best analysis and in-depth news, including a complete preview of UFC 292 below.
The other title fight sees the beginning of the second reign as champ for Zhang. The Chinese champion regained the 115-pound title in November with a second-round submission of Carla Esparza. The Chinese fighter has been on a tear since losing a close decision to Rose Namajunas in November 2021, also scoring a TKO of Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Lemos, meanwhile, bounced back from a first-round submission loss to Jessica Andrade in April 2022 to score a pair of stoppage victories to close the year and earn her title shot.
CBS Sports will also have live coverage of the fight with round-by-round scoring and blow-by-blow updates to keep you up to date throughout the night.
With so much happening on Saturday night, let's take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 292 fight card, odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
- Aljamain Sterling (c) -250 vs. Sean O'Malley +205, bantamweight championship
- Zhang Weili (c) -320 vs. Amanda Lemos +250, women's strawweight championship
- Ian Machado Garry -490 vs. Neil Magny +370, welterweights
- Mario Bautista -220 vs. Da'Mon Blackshear +180, bantamweights
- Marlon Vera -200 vs. Pedro Munhoz +170, bantamweights
- Brad Tavares -270 vs. Chris Weidman +220, middleweights
- Gregory Rodrigues -350 vs. Denis Tiuliulin +275, middleweights
- Austin Hubbard -175 vs. Kurt Holobaugh +150, lightweights
- Brad Katona -170 vs. Cody Gibson +145, bantamweight
- Andre Petroski -240 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +200, middleweights
- Natalia Silva -330 vs. Andrea Lee +260, women's flyweights
- Karine Silva -150 vs. Maryna Moroz +125, women's flyweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of "Morning Kombat"), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 292 picks, predictions
| Campbell | Brookhouse | Mahjouri | Wise | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling (c) vs. O'Malley | Sterling | Sterling | Sterling | Sterling |
| Zhang (c) vs. Lemos | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang | Zhang |
| Garry vs. Magny | Garry | Garry | Garry | Garry |
| Bautista vs. Blackshear | Bautista | Bautista | Bautista | Bautista |
| Vera vs. Munhoz | Vera | Vera | Vera | Vera |
| Records to date (2023) | 27-18 | 26-19 | 25-20 | 27-18 |
Sterling vs. O'Malley
Campbell: Sterling is finally getting the respect he deserves as one of the most accomplished bantamweight champions in UFC history. Yet, for all the positive talk regarding Sterling's dangerous ground game, it's his fight IQ and elite poise that has been the secret ingredients. On paper, Sterling is also the worst kind of matchup for O'Malley's sublime striking style. If O'Malley can stay off of his back, the equation would change considerably. But Sterling is fresh off of taking down former Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo four times in his May win and possesses a style that is simply difficult to look good against offensively. O'Malley can only win if the fight is contested on his own terms, which is something critics used to say about Sterling. But the champion has evolved considerably and remains the rightful betting favorite against the dynamic yet limited rising star.
Mahjouri: Eventually, someone is going to figure out how to negate Sterling's style. I'm not confident this Saturday is the day. O'Malley has a lot going for him: accurate and powerful strikes, high IQ and a clever camp behind him. It's possible that he catches Sterling early or fends off enough takedowns to set up his own game, but Sterling managed to takedown Olympic gold medalist wrestler Henry Cejudo four times. Sterling has two genius camps behind him, Xtreme Couture and Serra-Longo. He's in his athletic prime and despite entering the fight banged up, I'll side with the champ to wear out O'Malley with smothering grappling and back control. One last successful title defense for the best bantamweight champ in UFC history.
Zhang vs. Lemos
Campbell: Outside of Lemos' punching power, this could be a very long night for the 36-year-old Brazilian challenger. Zhang has evolved her game tremendously, particularly when it comes to wrestling, since her pair of title defeats to Rose Namajunas in 2021. At 34, there's a case to be made that Zhang is the pound-for-pound best female fighter in the sport today. She also has the experience advantage being a veteran of five UFC title fights, including two that went the five-round distance. Lemos isn't one to be toyed with but she can be contained by someone as talented as Zhang.
Mahjouri: Lemos has not proven that she can win a fight at the highest level of women's strawweight. Losing to Jessica Andrade is nothing shameful, but to see Andrade lose three consecutive fights one year later has me doubting Lemos' chances against the champ. Zhang is an absolute juggernaut and is all the more dangerous now that she's rounded out her game. Zhang statistically lands more, absorbs fewer strikes and has a higher takedown average than the challenger. Pair that with her experience against elite competition and it's hard to see how Lemos wins without an upset stoppage.
Garry vs. Magny
Campbell: Like Conor McGregor's breakthrough stoppage of Dennis Siver in 2015, when he hurdled the Octagon wall afterwards to confront champion Jose Aldo in the crowd, another red-hot Irish prospect has the chance to make his name known worldwide with a critically important win in Boston. At 25, Garry looks like the real deal, with his first-round knockout of Daniel Rodriguez in May doing wonders to silence his skeptical critics. This test against an elite gatekeeper in Magny, even if it came about late after Geoff Neal withdrew due to undisclosed health issues, feels like the right fight at the right time. Magny is stingy and versatile enough to test Garry in certain ways and hasn't been finished by strikes since 2017. He's not, however, a big enough threat that Garry, provided the hype is for real, can't still find a way to dazzle and create his own Beantown moment.
Who wins UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 292, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $6,200 in 2022, and find out.
