Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of the most historic venues in motorsports. On Sunday at 12:45 p.m. ET, the Brickyard will host the 2023 Indianapolis 500. It's the biggest event the IndyCar Series has to offer and is considered part of the Triple Crown of Motorsport along with the 24 Hours of Le Mans and Monaco Grand Prix. The list of Indianapolis 500 winners includes top drivers in history like A.J. Foyt, Mario Andretti and Graham Hill, the only Triple Crown winner in the history of auto racing. After a stunning victory two years ago, Helio Castroneves will be in the 2023 Indianapolis 500 staring grid seeking a record-setting fifth victory, but he's a 55-1 longshot in the 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Pato O'Ward is the 5-1 favorite in the 2023 Indy 500 odds, while Alex Palou is next on the board at 23-4. Before scouring the 2023 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2023 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start in NASCAR this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 12 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 Indianapolis 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 Indy 500 leaderboard.
Top 2023 Indianapolis 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Scott McLaughlin, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 29-year-old New Zealand native joined the IndyCar Series in 2020 and is coming off a fourth-place finish in the standings in 2022. He scored the first three victories of his IndyCar career in the process and is putting together another strong season in 2023.
McLaughlin is fifth in the IndyCar standings through the first five races of the season and captured his fourth career victory in the Children's of Alabama Indy Grand Prix at Barber Motorsports Park in Birmingham late last month. McLaughlin's best finish in the Indy 500 came in 2020, when he finished eighth. He'll be eager to establish himself as a title-contender with a win in IndyCar's flagship race. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Pato O'Ward, the Vegas favorite at 5-1, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top five. O'Ward was the 2020 Indy 500 Rookie of the Year after finishing sixth and has improved his performance each year. But after leading for 26 laps in last year's race, and being even with Ericsson entering turn one on the final lap, O'Ward finished second.
That second-place finish would be a harbinger of the 2023 IndyCar Series, as O'Ward has three runners-up but no victories. He's failed to win over his last 10 races, but Arrow McLaren's drought extends much longer at The Brickyard. O'Ward's team has never won an Indy 500, despite having 45 starters since 2001. O'Ward always finds a way to be in contention, but history isn't on his side in terms of winning on Sunday. There are far better values in the 2023 Indy 500 starting grid. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 Indianapolis 500 picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Indy 500 odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Indy 500 2023? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted 12 winners since 2021.
2023 Indianapolis 500 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)
See full 2023 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine
Pato O'Ward (5-1)
Alex Palou (23-4)
Scott Dixon (7-1)
Alexander Rossi (9-1)
Rinus VeeKay (10-1)
Marcus Ericsson (11-1)
Takuma Sato (11-1)
Felix Rosenqvist (12-1)
Josef Newgarden (14-1)
Scott McLaughlin (15-1)
Santino Ferrucci (15-1)
Will Power (16-1)
Tony Kanaan (17-1)
Colton Herta (20-1)
Kyle Kirkwood (25-1)
Conor Daly (30-1)
David Malukas (40-1)
Romain Grosjean (45-1)
Graham Rahal (50-1)
Simon Pagenaud (50-1)
Ed Carpenter (50-1)
Helio Castroneves (55-1)
Ryan Hunter-Reay (60-1)
Marco Andretti (60-1)
Benjamin Pedersen (75-1)
Christian Lundgaard (100-1)
Jack Harvey (200-1)
Agustin Canapino (250-1)
Callum Ilott (250-1)
RC Enerson (300-1)
Devlin DeFrancesco (300-1)
Katherine Legge (300-1)
Sting Ray Robb (300-1)
Indianapolis 500 starting grid
Row 1- Scott Dixon, Rinus VeeKay, Felix Rosenqvist
Row 2- Santino Ferrucci, Pato O'Ward, Scott Dixon
Row 3- Alexander Rossi, Takuma Sato, Tony Kanaan
Row 4- Marcus Ericsson, Benjamin Pedersen, Will Power
Row 5- Ed Carpenter, Scott McLaughlin, Kyle Kirkwood
Row 6- Conor Daly, Josef Newgarden, Ryan Hunter-Reay
Row 7- Romain Grosjean, Hélio Castroneves, Colton Herta
Row 8- Simon Pagenaud, David Malukas, Marco Andretti
Row 9- Devlin DeFrancesco, Agustín Canapino, Callum Ilott
Row 10- R. C. Enerson, Katherine Legge, Christian Lundgaard
Row 11- Sting Ray Robb, Jack Harvey, Graham Rahal