After a Game 1 loss, the Oklahoma City Thunder are in a place of desperation on Thursday afternoon for Game 2 against the Houston Rockets. Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the way for the Thunder, with James Harden serving as the key figure for the Rockets. Houston will be without Russell Westbrook (quad) and Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) due to injury. Oklahoma City will operate without Luguentz Dort (knee) in this matchup.
Tip-off is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists Houston as the two-point favorite. The over-under for total points expected is 226, down from opening at 227.5, in the latest Thunder vs. Rockets odds. Before making any Rockets vs. Thunder picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Thunder. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Thunder vs. Rockets:
- Rockets vs. Thunder spread: Rockets -2
- Rockets vs. Thunder over-under: 226 points
- Rockets vs. Thunder money line: Rockets -135, Thunder +115
- HOU: The Rockets are 5-4 against the spread in the last nine games
- OKC: The Thunder are 4-5 against the spread in the last nine games
Why the Rockets can cover
While the absence of Westbrook is significant for the Rockets, Houston can rely on one of the NBA's best players in Harden. In the regular season, Harden produced at an elite level, averaging 34.3 points, 7.5 assists and 6.6 rebounds. In Game 1 against the Thunder, the left-handed superstar showed no signs of slowing down, producing 37 points and 11 rebounds in a convincing victory.
Harden is surrounded by a small-ball scheme that accentuates statistical advantages on both ends, with the Rockets deploying one of the NBA's top-rated offenses. Defensively, Houston does suffer from a lack of size and bulk, but the Rockets were successful in Game 1 with their switching scheme, and Thunder do not have a traditional, back-to-the-basket force to punish Houston's smaller defenders.
Why the Thunder can cover
The Thunder struggled on both ends during Game 1 but, in zooming out to the full season, Oklahoma City can rely on a number of strengths. Billy Donovan's team is one of the best in the NBA at avoiding turnovers, committing a giveaway on only 13.6 percent of possessions, and the Thunder are also tremendous at getting to the free-throw line consistently.
Defensively, any team has its hands full with the Rockets, but Oklahoma City ranks as a top-eight unit in points allowed per possession. Importantly, the Thunder do a very good job at keeping opponents off the free-throw line, ranking in the top five of the NBA on a rate basis, and that is a key factor against Harden and Houston's analytically-inclined offense.
How to make Rockets vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Eric Gordon and Danilo Gallinari projected to exceed their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Thunder vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rockets vs. Thunder spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
