The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat will meet four times during the 2023-24 NBA regular season. The first meeting between the Eastern Conference powers will take place on Christmas Day at Kaseya Center in Miami. The Heat are 17-12 overall and 8-6 at home, while the Sixers are 20-8 overall and 8-4 on the road. Jimmy Butler (calf) is questionable, while Joel Embiid (ankle) has been ruled out.
For this 8 p.m. ET tip, SportsLine consensus lists Miami as the 3-point favorite. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 226 in the latest 76ers vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. 76ers picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 101-52 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:
- 76ers vs. Heat spread: Heat -3
- 76ers vs. Heat over/under: 226 points
- 76ers vs. Heat money line: Heat -151, 76ers +127
- PHI: The 76ers are 8-4 against the spread in home games
- MIA: The Heat are 4-10 against the spread in road games
- 76ers vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the 76ers can cover
Though Miami has home-court advantage in this matchup, Philadelphia is comfortable away from home. The 76ers have the best road record (8-4) and best road net rating (+8.7) in the Eastern Conference this season, and Philadelphia's defense is off to a strong start. The 76ers lead the NBA with 8.9 steals per game, and Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 of the league in blocked shots (6.0 per game), defensive rebound rate (72.5%) and second-chance points allowed (12.5 per game). The 76ers also hold opponents to 34.4% shooting from the field and 46.1% shooting from the field this season.
On offense, Philadelphia will miss Embiid, but the Sixers still have a well-rounded attack, averaging 121.5 points per 100 possessions to rank in the top three of the NBA. The 76ers lead the league in free throw creation, averaging nearly 28 attempts per game, and Philadelphia is elite in free throw accuracy at 85.6%. The 76ers are shooting 48.5% from the field and 38.1% from 3-point range this season, and Philadelphia is in the top quartile of the league in fast break points (16.5 per game), offensive rebound rate (30.8%), second-chance points (15.7 per game) and turnover rate (13.0%) in 2023-24. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is exceptionally well-coached and versatile. That allows the Heat to operate at the highest level despite injury concerns, and Miami's defense is stout. The Heat are fantastic on the defensive glass, securing 72.7% of missed shots and allowing only 12.3 second-chance points per game. Miami is also in the top five of the league in free throw prevention, yielding only 20.4 attempts per game, and the Heat are forcing 14.7 turnovers per game with 7.6 steals per contest.
On offense, the Heat lead the NBA in 3-point shooting, making almost 40% of long-range offerings. Miami is also in the top three of the league in free throw accuracy at 83.3%, and the Heat average nearly twice as many assists (26.2 per game) as turnovers (13.3 per game). The Heat are keyed by a two-way force in Bam Adebayo, who is a four-time All-Defensive team selection who is also averaging 21.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game in 2023-24. See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 229 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Sixers vs. Heat, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 101-52 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
