The Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks square off on Friday in prime time. The Mavericks are 24-20 overall and 11-9 on the road this season, and Dallas will visit State Farm Arena in Atlanta for this matchup. The Hawks are 18-26 overall and 8-12 at home, with both teams in this contest looking to halt three-game losing skids. Kyrie Irving (thumb) and Dwight Powell (eye) are out for Dallas. Trae Young (concussion protocol) and Clint Capela (calf) are listed as questionable for Atlanta, with De'Andre Hunter (knee) ruled out.
For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Mavericks as 1.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 245.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any Hawks vs. Mavericks picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 48-25 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Hawks vs. Mavericks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavericks vs. Hawks:
- Mavericks vs. Hawks spread: Mavericks -1.5
- Mavericks vs. Hawks over/under: 245.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Hawks money line: Mavericks -117, Hawks -102
- Dallas: The Mavericks are 12-8 against the spread in road games
- Atlanta: The Hawks are 4-16 against the spread in home games
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Mavericks can cover
The Hawks have widespread defensive issues, and the Mavericks are equipped to take full advantage of those shortcomings. Atlanta lands in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 119.3 points per 100 possessions this season. The Hawks are also in the bottom three of the league in opponent field goal percentage (50.1%), opponent 2-point percentage (57.6%), and assists allowed (28.8 per game). Atlanta is also in the bottom tier of the NBA in second-chance points allowed (15.3 per game) and points allowed in the paint (55.8 per game), with opponents also averaging more than 16 fast break points per contest against the Hawks.
The Mavericks are adept in transition, averaging 14.8 fast break points per game, and Dallas is firmly in the top quartile of the NBA in 3-point accuracy (37.1%) and free throw creation (25.1 attempts per game). Dallas is also in the top five of the league in 2-point accuracy (57.4%) and 3-pointers (15.2 per game), and the Mavericks take care of the ball at an elite level. The Mavericks commit only 12.2 turnovers per game, No. 2 in the NBA, and on the other end, Dallas is allowing the fewest 3-pointers (11.1 per game) in the league defensively. See which team to pick here.
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta's offense has some clear strengths, and Dallas enters this matchup with notable defensive shortcomings. The Hawks are in the top six in offensive rebound rate (31.4%), free throw creation (24.7 attempts per game), and free throw accuracy (81%). Atlanta is also in the top eight of the NBA in 3-pointers (13.7 per game) and second-chance points (15.5 per game), and the Hawks can be aggressive against the Mavs. Dallas is in the bottom five in defensive rebound rate (68.7%), freeing up additional possessions for Atlanta. The Mavericks also land in the bottom three in steals (6.3 per game) and blocked shots (3.7 per game), with opponents shooting 48.5% from the field against Dallas.
On the other end, the Hawks do a quality job in creating havoc. Atlanta forces 14.6 turnovers per game, including 7.9 steals per contest. The Hawks also keep opponents off the free throw line, yielding only 22.5 attempts per game. See which team to pick here.
How to make Mavericks vs. Hawks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 246 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only see the model's NBA picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Hawks vs. Mavs, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavs vs. Hawks spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 48-25 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
