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The Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings will try to close out 2021 on a winning note when the two teams square off in a New Year's Eve contest at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif. The matchup will be the second game of a two-game set between the teams; two days ago the Kings knocked off the Mavericks, 95-94, on a buzzer-beating corner 3-pointer by Sacramento's Chimezie Metu. Dallas (16-18) enters Friday's game in second place in the Southwest division, five games behind Memphis. Meanwhile the Kings (15-21) are in last place in the Pacific, 13 games behind the co-leaders, Golden State and Phoenix. 

Tip-off is at 6 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Kings odds while the Over-Under is 216.5. Before making any Kings vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 48-24 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Kings, and just revealed its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Kings vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Kings spread: Dallas -1.5
  • Mavericks vs. Kings over-under: 216.5 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Kings money line: Dallas -125, Sacramento +105 
  • DAL: Dallas turns the ball over on 12.6 percent of possessions, which is second in the league. 
  • SAC: Buddy Hield ranks second in the NBA in 3-pointers per game (3.6). 
Featured Game | Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is getting solid production from Jalen Brunson, Kristaps Porzingis. and Dorian Finney-Smith. Over the last two games the three have averaged a combined 61.0 points a game. Brunson in particular has been a bright spot this season, averaging 16.1 points, 5.5 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 3-pointers through 33 games and scoring at least 25 points in four of his past seven contests.

In addition, Sacramento's defense remains one of the worst in the league. One season after having the NBA's worst defense by far, the Kings are giving up 113.8 points a game. That ranks 28th in the league, ahead of only Houston and Charlotte. Dallas will be without Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke, Maxi Kleber and Boban Marjanovic due to health and safety protocols.

Why the Kings can cover

Sacramento has a prolific 3-point shooter in Hield. The 6-foot-4 gunner averages 3.6 made 3-pointers per game, which is second in the NBA, behind only Stephen Curry. Hield has hit a 3-pointer in 34 of 36 games played this season. The Mavericks are allowing opponents to shoot 35.6 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks in the bottom half of the league.

In addition, the Kings have owned the series between the teams recently. Sacramento has won four of the last five and 14 of the last 21 games against Dallas.

How to make Kings vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 221 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Mavericks vs. Kings picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Kings vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Kings spread you need to jump on New Year's Eve, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.