The NBA trade deadline is less than 24 hours away, and this one already has been a little crazy. DeMarcus Cousins is a Pelican, Lou Williams joined the Rockets, and the Nets somehow found a first-round pick. But what comes next? Here’s a look at the potential trade candidates being discussed and how likely they are to be dealt.
All likelihoods are on a 1-5 scale with “1” meaning “not happening, forget about it,” and “5” being “that dude might as well get his luggage out.”
Here’s the basic conversation when you ask people around the league if Larry Bird will deal Paul George.
“So is he available?”
“No, there’s no way that Bird moves him.”
“OK, thanks.”
“... Unless he does.”
“Wait, you just said he wouldn’t.”
“He won’t. It’s just ... ”
And on and on. Bird has been pretty vocal about keeping him. The Pacers can offer him the designated player super-max next year in the event he makes an All-NBA team (which doesn’t look likely). If they make that deal, they’re rebuilding around Myles Turner, which doesn’t seem like something Bird would want to do unless he was out of options.
Yet the conversations have not only lingered, but actually gained a little smoke to their fire. Yahoo reported they’re at least taking offers on it, and it’s a complex dance they’re caught in. USA Today reports that George wants them to make a move to return to contender status, or his position as being willing to re-sign in free agency come 2018 will be in jeopardy.
Those are heavy terms, but Bird’s not exactly the kind of guy to quake in his boots. George has been grumbling for some time, since Bird elected to blow up the 2013 team that ran out to the No. 1 seed in the East. After George lost the following season to injury, Bird detonated that core, and George has been irked by a number of things since. First it was the preference of Bird for him to play power forward (a move that George has successfully politicked this way out of since), and recently, he has pretty much outright said his teammates don’t get along. This despite a decent record in the East.
The Lakers rumors are always going to be there. They were there the last time George was up for extension and he happily signed with Indiana.
So is George really wanting out? Or is this leverage to force Bird to make changes? Will Bird cut his losses and get ahead of a possible loss of leverage if things do go south in the final year of George’s contract?
Teams are calling about PG13. They want him. Boston, Denver, among others would throw the farm (or translated to Celtics’ terms, Avery Bradley and a second-rounder) at Bird to get him. But it would surprise most people around the league if Bird pulled the trigger. This is what the DeMarcus Cousins trade has done: There is no “never” anymore. And while in times of chaos, NBA teams tend to head for the bunker and wait for things to stabilize, there’s also a great deal of assets on the market for someone willing to pick up the phone with a true superstar like George.
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TRADED (1-5 SCALE): 2
Ah, the Bulls.
OK, I’m going to try and break this down as simply as I can, but that’s a difficult task.
Basically Bulls management, led by Gar Forman and John Paxson, are firmly in control of the franchise and run things their way. They replaced Tom Thibodeau with Fred Hoiberg, and when Jimmy Butler clashed with Hoiberg, definitively took Hoiberg’s side. Moreover, they’ve been floating Butler’s name in trade talks for over a year. There is a sense from those elsewhere in the league that the front office remains conflicted about continuing to allow Butler the reins as the team’s best player and face of the franchise for myriad reasons, none of which has anything to do with how he plays basketball, which is brilliantly.
That’s important to remember as we talk about Butler and all the guys on this list. Very little of it has to do with how they actually play.
Then you’ve got Michael Reinsdorf, who the Chicago Sun-Times has reported is now in charge and who values the bottom line above all else. Trading Butler is bad for the bottom line, because of his popularity.
So who wins out: the front office over-thinking their situation, or the owner “cashing them checks?”
Somewhere in here is Butler, who is probably understandably sick of all the drama surrounding his situation, considering how good he’s been this season.
Finally, you have to consider that the Bulls historically have never done this kind of major mid-season trade of a superstar player. There’s precedent to consider here, and this move doesn’t fit with the Bulls’ M.O. All of this has to make you think a deal is unlikely. A more likely scenario involves the Bulls waiting to see if it gets better or worse. After all, Chicago’s in the thick of the race for a playoff spot. The Bulls are telegraphing that they’re not going to deal Butler, but that doesn’t mean anything. The history of this team watching key opportunities pass them by means a great deal more.
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TRADED (1-5 SCALE): 3
This is about as simple as I can make it. With Andre Drummond on the floor with Marcus Morris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Tobias Harris, the Pistons are outscored by 7.0 points per 100 possessions. When those three are on the floor and Drummond sits, they outscore their opponent by 7.6 points per 100 possessions, via NBA.com. In short: with Drummond, very bad; without Drummond, very good.
And so the talks about Drummond continue to swirl.
Multiple team sources have intimated skepticism about the legitimacy of Stan Van Gundy’s intent to deal the big man, with the phrase “kicking the tires” used most often. That jibes with Van Gundy’s public comments of skepticism about the prospects of a deal. But two things remain true: That the Pistons’ overall team structure has failed this season and that Drummond’s effort and intensity wax and wane with the changing of the tides.
Drummond is a buy-low candidate right now who could pay off big time later, but that makes it tougher for the Pistons to move him. Trading Drummond now would be dealing from a position of weakness, and that, of course, is doom. But Van Gundy’s annoyance with both Drummond and Reggie Jackson is palpable. At the same time, teams have to have a long-term view and the odds are greater that Drummond will develop as a defensive force than he will remain a sieve on that end of the floor.
But if the Pistons can shoot the gap and find a strong package of assets, given their regression and how limited this core looks at the moment, it wouldn’t surprise most to see them pull a trigger.
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TRADED: 2
Someone, anyone want Jahlil Okafor? You there! In the back, with the fancy coat? Want to swap it for a former Duke Blue Devil top prospect?
The Sixers are a little bit past desperate at this point. He’s going somewhere. They can’t even go with “a bad deal is worse than no deal” at this point. The situation is too rough, and they’re at risk of just running out of minutes for him, period. The only way Okafor doesn’t get dealt, likely for something cheap, is if they find a better set of assets for Nerlens Noel.
It’s important to note that every time I quiz league personnel about Okafor, I continue to find supporters. There’s always a growing share of, “He just can’t play in the modern NBA,” but there’s often been more talk of how his post scoring and size is undeniable. He seems ripe for a team to take a flyer on him right before the deadline.
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TRADED: 5
This is the one I’m not completely sold is over. All the talk is about how Melo is moving on, the Knicks aren’t expecting to deal, him, the whole conversation is dead.
I’m not buying it.
Whenever you have a protracted deal like this, it goes through life cycle. Talk, talk, talk, apex of talks, denouement, and then a sudden resolution at the end. There’s no way to know if things have gone quiet because the Knicks are trying to get a deal done under the radar, or if they’re actually quiet. It could be just what has been said -- that the talks have died down and Melo likely stays a Knick.
But this situation seems untenable, and the moment Anthony started saying he would consider waiving the no-trade clause, the dynamic shifted. Once that roadblock comes down, putting it back up again is a little tougher.
Is there a deal to be had for what the Knicks want? Of course not. But the Cousins trade might provide cover here. It would be hard to get a worse deal than what the Kings got.
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TRADED: 4
So Denver has been sitting on the second-best set of assets behind Boston. They have young players, their own pick, and veterans on affordable contracts. The reports this week have indicated the Nuggets are looking for a first-round pick in exchange for either Gallinari or Chandler. However, it should be noted that the Nuggets aren’t necessarily interested in keeping that pick, but instead using it to acquire other assets, according to a league source.
Chandler has expressed his interest in a trade, as USA Today reported. Gallinari has maintained he wants to stay in Denver, but he has an opt out this summer and it’s unclear whether the Nuggets are prepared to commit serious long-term money to Gallinari given the age of their younger core.
There is a feeling Denver will look to move one of the two wings, but sources close to the team have stressed they feel no compulsion to get a deal done and are satisfied with finishing the season with the roster in place currently.
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TRADED: 4
It just wouldn’t be trade season without Brook Lopez. The Nets star has been on the block forever, and in the past 24 hours, the asking price reportedly has been lowered to a first-round and second-round pick, down from two firsts.
Lopez has been healthy the past three seasons, is 28, on a reasonable contract, and in a good defensive system can be a fine-to-good defender. He’s a top-flight scoring presence and a willing passer. He should be very valuable. Except that players like Lopez are saturated on the market. Nikola Vucevic, Al Jefferson, Jusuf Nurkic (already dealt) ... the market for scoring centers is low because there are so many and the game has evolved to be so perimeter-oriented.
He can be had, but the Nets have no incentive to give them away, because, well, when you’ve lost everything you’re not afraid to do anything.
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TRADED: 3
