The Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks will square off for a third time this season when the teams meet at the Chase Center on Sunday night. The Western Conference contenders have split their first two meetings, with the home team winning each time. The Warriors (43-17) are second in the conference and returned from the All-Star break with a dominant 132-95 victory over Portland on Thursday. They had lost four of five going in, but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson led eight Warriors in double figures with 18 points each. The Mavericks came up short in their last outing, a 114-109 setback against the Jazz.
Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 3.5-point favorite in its latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds, and the over-under for total points is set at 218. Before you make any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 69-41 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavericks, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavericks vs. Warriors:
- Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Golden State -3.5
- Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 218 points
- DAL: The Mavericks are 9-7 ATS this season as a road underdog
- GSW: The Warriors are 8-6-2 ATS with a rest advantage this year
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State's confidence will be soaring after Thursday's win, and the Warriors also can draw on a 103-92 rout of Dallas in the last meeting. The Warriors are 26-6 straight-up and 17-13-2 against the spead at home and dominated last month's matchup. Golden State made more than 53 percent of its shots, hit almost 40 percent from long range and had 17 more defensive rebounds. Curry had seven of his nine boards in the Golden State end and scored 18 points, while rookie Jon Kuminga led the way with 22.
The Warriors score 111 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA, while allowing just 103.6, the fourth-best mark in the league. Curry is the focal point and averages 25.7 points and 6.5 assists, while shooting 37.8 percent from 3-point range. Andrew Wiggins (40.9 percent) and Thompson (38.5) also are dangerous from outside. The Warriors are sixth in the NBA in shooting (43.2 percent) and second in shooting defense (45.6).
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is 17-7 against the spread after a loss, and it led by seven at halftime Friday against the Jazz but faltered down the stretch. It has one of the NBA's most complete players in Luka Doncic, who is sixth in scoring (27.4) and fifth in assists (9.1) and gets a team-high nine rebounds per game. He has 51 points over the two meetings against Golden State this season. Dallas was badly outrebounded in the last matchup, but it was even at 46-46 in the previous one, and it has won four of the past five road tilts.
The Mavericks are 17-12 ATS on the road, and Dwight Powell had a season-high 22 points on Friday. Someone will need to step up to help after Doncic scored 25 but no other player topped 11 in the last meeting. It also could be Spencer Dinwiddie, who had 20 against the Jazz, or Jalen Brunson, who's averaging 16.1 points per game. The Mavericks are second in the NBA in scoring defense (103.2 per game), and opponents are shooting just 33.6 percent from 3-point range (sixth).
How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 223 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits nearly 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
