One team will advance to the Divisional Round and one team will go home for the offseason when the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars collide in an NFL Super Wild Card Weekend playoff game on Saturday. The Chargers (10-7) are looking for their first playoff victory since the 2018 season. They haven't reached the AFC championship game since the 2007 season. The Jaguars (9-8) haven't won a playoff game since the 2017 season and enter Saturday's game in the 2023 NFL playoffs on a five-game winning streak, the franchise's longest winning streak since 2005 and tied for the third longest in team history.
Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Chargers vs. Jaguars odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 47. Before you make any Jaguars vs. Chargers picks or NFL playoff predictions, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Super Wild Card Weekend in the 2023 NFL playoffs on an incredible 161-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 15-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.
The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Chargers vs. Jaguars and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can see it only at SportsLine. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Jaguars vs. Chargers:
- Chargers vs. Jaguars spread: Los Angeles -1.5
- Chargers vs. Jaguars over/under: 47 points
- Chargers vs. Jaguars money line: Los Angeles -135, Jacksonville +115
- LAC: Chargers are third in passing offense (269.6 yards per game).
- JAX: Foyesade Oluokun leads the league in tackles (184).
- Chargers vs. Jaguars picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Chargers can cover
Quarterback Justin Herbert has been prolific to start his career. The sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft who will be playing in his first playoff game, Herbert has the most passing yards (14,089), attempts (1,966) and completions (1,316) of any quarterback through his first three seasons in NFL history. He's also second in passing touchdowns (94), four fewer than Dan Marino's record of 98.
On Saturday, Herbert has a plus matchup against a Jacksonville defense that has struggled defending the pass this season. In the regular season, the Jaguars ranked 28th in pass defense (238.5 passing yards per game allowed). That bodes well for a Los Angeles offense that passed for 269.6 yards per game, which was third in the league. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why the Jaguars can cover
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was one of the league's best quarterbacks in the second half of the season. From Week 9 to the end of the regular season, Lawrence ranked second in passer rating (104.6) and completion percentage (69.7). His 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio also was second behind only Jared Goff (17-to-1). Led by Lawrence, Jacksonville went 7-2 in its last nine games.
In addition, the Jaguars face a Chargers offense that will be without one of its key playmakers, receiver Mike Williams, who will miss the game with a back injury. The sixth-year receiver, who was injured in the season finale, led the team with 895 receiving yards in 13 games this season. See which side to back at SportsLine.
How to make Chargers vs. Jaguars picks
Now, the model has simulated Jaguars vs. Chargers 10,000 times. The model is leaning Over the total, but its much stronger play is on the spread. One team is covering in nearly 80% of simulations. See who it is at SportsLine.
So who wins Chargers vs. Jaguars in the NFL playoffs 2023? And which team covers almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jaguars vs. Chargers spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks.
