The draw for the World Cup has been made, now it's time to get out your wallcharts and pencil in who you think is going all the way to the final in December. We've done much the same already and here is a look at the tiers in which we have placed the 29 teams that have so far booked their place in Qatar:
Tier 1: The favorites
This quintet of teams have arguably put fairly significant daylight between themselves and the rest of the planet in terms of their results over recent years. Naturally, at least one of them will not make the semifinals, but the likelihood is that none of them would be impressed if they fell at an earlier hurdle. FIFA's rankings are rarely an exact measurement of international football -- not least when so many nations have attempted to game them to improve their seeding at draws -- but Brazil leading the way going into the draw looked about right. They will also have welcomed a group that one suspects will look far harder on paper than they will make it look in practice. Tite's squad is one blessed with depth at every position and could probably weather the storm of any absentee, even Neymar.
Perhaps the only squad that can match them for sheer talent is the holders, who have unearthed yet more gems over the past four years. Even their B team might make a decent run at this tournament. In particular, the quality of their center backs augurs well for a competition that is rarely won by a team that cannot keep it tight at the back. The question hovering over them is whether Didier Deschamps has yet found a system to get the best out of his squad; it seems perverse to suggest a World Cup winner as player and manager might be inhibiting his squad, but it is hard to shake the suspicion this team is less than the sum of its parts. One could not lay similar questions at the door of the Spanish manager, who may just be the X-factor if La Roja are to win back their crown from 2010. His players do not always make it easy for themselves and Group E does not look like one where they will able to wobble. However, Spain's style of play tends to win more games than not.
The third European side that sits firmly in the favorites category are England, last year's beaten finalists at the Euros with a squad full of promising youngsters who are already experienced at the highest level. Gareth Southgate has devised a formula that works for the Three Lions in knockout football, making it easier to drop in the next generation of stars in Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka. Their group has the potential to unleash some neuroses, but if they play to their collective level, they should be able to comfortably deal with their opponents.
They are not the only big gun who will be happy with their lot, Argentina have already beaten Mexico in two recent World Cups while Saudi Arabia and Poland hold few fears. The South American champions are more than just Lionel Messi, not that being just him would rule them out of contention. Their run to the Copa America title was as much built on the talents of Cristian Romero and Emiliano Martinez. In what is surely the great man's last shot at a World Cup win, Argentina finally look more like a team than they have in some time.
1. Brazil (--)
2. France (--)
3. England (+1)
4. Argentina (-1)
5. Spain (+1)
Tier 2: Possible contenders
It certainly does not seem unimaginable that this trio of European teams could win it all, though they have more significant questions hanging over them than others. For Belgium, this tournament feels like perhaps one too late for a golden generation that are starting to show signs of a decade or more of wear and tear, though they will at least have time to warm up for the knockout rounds with a relatively favorable group. For Germany, it might be a tournament too soon for Hansi Flick's side to really click into shape and for its bright youngsters such as Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz and Florian Wirtz to really come into their own. It's no help that they've been handed a rather tricky draw with Spain.
Any side managed by Louis van Gaal will be nothing if not absorbing both on and off the pitch. In key positions, the Dutch are a match for anyone, but the squad for the last round of international games had only two players (Memphis Depay and Georginio Wijnaldum) who had scored more than 10 goals for their country. They need a striker to emerge sharpish if they are to have more than a puncher's chance.
6. Belgium (+1)
7. Netherlands (+3)
8. Germany (-3)
Tier 3: The knockouts await
Here you will find plenty of teams who have won the benefit of the doubt from their recent performances, proving they can handle the pressure of big international tournaments. Senegal are a prime example of that; Africa's champions showed nerves of steel to beat Egypt twice in a few months and ought to be confident of exiting Group A in second at the very least.
Uruguay and Portugal make for the most intriguing top-two pairing, their veteran strike forces having carried them into the tournament but also bringing with them question marks as to whether their peak periods have passed. Still, Uruguay entered the Luis Suarez zone to get this far and it would appear his limited game time is not holding him back.
Croatia and Denmark were both handed draws that looked relatively favorable for second place but probably not first, though Euro 2020 offered plenty of evidence that you should discount Kasper Hjullmand's side at your peril. They are a prime example of what good international teams look like, rigid in defense and able to exploit opportunities at the other end (especially set pieces). Croatia are not getting any younger but they should be confident that their experience will take past more green rivals for second place.
As for the USA, they may have finished third in CONCACAF but their underlying metrics suggest a strong team, one that has room to develop in its youth. No team had a better expected goal (xG) difference in the third round of qualifying. Indeed, they had the round's most xG for and least xG allowed. Their spine is perhaps not enough to repel England but they will have been relatively pleased with their lot, despite all the narrative and takes England, Iran and one of Scotland, Wales or Ukraine will bring. Gregg Berhalter should be confident his side can pip the second European team.
9. Senegal (+5)
10. Uruguay (new entry)
11. Denmark (-2)
12. USA (+1)
13. Portugal (-1)
14. Croatia (new entry)
Tier 4: In the mix
Brazil's group seems to be the most intriguing in terms of the battle to finish behind a clear front-runner. Switzerland showed themselves to be a nightmare for big sides at Euro 2020 while Serbia's run of form to top Portugal in qualifying merely reflected what is an impressively deep talent pool. If nothing else, there might be no more gaudily fun matchups in the group stages than the ones involving Neymar and Dusan Tadic.
Similarly, Mexico and Poland figure to be relatively tightly matched behind Argentina though neither feel like the sort of team who could then make a run beyond the round of 16. El Tri made their mark in CONCACAF qualifying with a relatively sturdy defense but that did not always hold up that well against friendly opponents or the best North and Central America had to offer.
Meanwhile in Group H, both Ghana and South Korea will know they are the underdogs but that they have the benefit of drawing teams who feel more liable to throw in a rick of a game than others. For the former, their Africa Cup of Nations form does not augur well while under Paulo Bento, the Korea Republic look to be strong defensively and not quite as reliant on Heung-min Son for goals.
Morocco, meanwhile, are not one to be discounted after going through 2021 without defeat and finding themselves rather unfortunately dumped out of AFCON by Egypt. There are good players across that team, most notably Achraf Hakimi and Youssef En-Nesyri. As for Ecuador, any team that escapes South American qualifying through the top four deserves serious respect. A young team filled with players who will be looking to make their mark on the world stage, they could be one to surprise a few people.
15. Mexico (+3)
16. Ecuador (--)
17. Switzerland (--)
18. Serbia (-3)
19. Morocco (new entry)
20. South Korea (new entry)
21. Ghana (new entry)
22. Poland (new entry)
Tier 5: Unlikely to escape the groups
Everyone would have wanted to be in Qatar's group but that should not mean they are taken for granted. After all, this is a team that has earned credible results over recent years, all of which have been building toward ensuring that that opening game against Ecuador does not end in embarrassing fashion. They will be a hard out.
That is true of every team in this group. Even the Saudi Arabian and Tunisian side that are bottom of our current power rankings deserve respect for the convincing way in which they made their way to the World Cup. The same might be said of Canada, even though they topped CONCACAF's Ocho, the draw has not been kind to them but on their return to the big time they will surely come out swinging. If they can somehow nick a point from Belgium or Croatia, who knows how their final match might play out.
Iran, meanwhile, pushed Portugal close four years ago in picking up their four points and should not be discounted in the slightest. Generally, a World Cup contrives to offer one or two whipping boys who seem to have precious little hope. This time it does not look like it will, even with three more teams left to join the party.
23. Japan (new entry)
24. Cameroon (new entry)
25. Canada (new entry)
26. Qatar (-6)
27. Iran (-7)
28. Saudi Arabia (new entry)
29. Tunisia (new entry)
