The Las Vegas Aces have, somehow, defended their title. Despite missing multiple starters in Game 4 of the 2023 WNBA Finals, they outlasted the New York Liberty for a 70-69 win in Game 4, to clinch the series and their second consecutive championship. They are the first team to go back-to-back since the 2001-02 Los Angeles Sparks.
Chelsea Gray and Kiah Stokes were both sidelined with foot injuries they suffered in Game 3, and everyone was expected a comfortable Liberty win. And when the Liberty jumped out to an early double-digit lead, then pushed their advantage back to 12 in the third quarter, it seemed like that was exactly what would happen. The Liberty's offense went ice cold from that point on, however, and the Aces battled back to take the lead before hanging on in the final seconds.
A'ja Wilson, who completed a tremendous postseason run with 24 points and 16 rebounds in Game 4, was named Finals MVP. She averaged 21.3 points, 12.5 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game in the Finals.
(1) Las Vegas Aces def. (2) New York Liberty, 3-1
Game 1: Aces 99, Liberty 82 (Aces lead 1-0)
Game 2: Aces 104, Liberty 76 (Aces lead 2-0)
Game 3: Liberty 87, Aces 73 (Aces lead 2-1)
Game 4: Aces 70, Liberty 69 (Aces win 3-1)
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Players to watch
Aces: A'ja Wilson
Wilson couldn't quite pull off the MVP-Defensive Player of the Year double peat again this season, and had to settle for just DPOY and a third-place MVP finish. She has been by far the best player since the playoffs began, however, and is averaging 25.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game on 59.5% shooting. If she continues playing like that, the Aces have a good chance to win it all, and she'll be able to add a Finals MVP to her resume.
Liberty: Breanna Stewart
Five years after winning her first MVP award, Stewart claimed the league's most prestigious honor again this season, beating out Alyssa Thomas and Wilson in a historic race. She hasn't always played like an MVP in the postseason, however, as she lost her outside shot and struggled to deal with the Mystics and Sun's physicality. In Games 3 and 4 of the semis, though, she started to look like her usual self. The Liberty will need her to maintain that form, because if she's not at her best, they won't win this series.
Three keys to the series
The Aces' Kiah Stokes/Alysha Clark dilemma
In late July, Candace Parker underwent surgery to fix a fractured foot. She has not played since and will not be back for this series. For the most part, the Aces' depth of talent has allowed them to overcome her absence. Kiah Stokes slid into the starting lineup, while Alysha Clark stepped into a bigger roll off the bench and without Parker they are 23-5 in all competitions.
It's notable, though, that three of those defeats were to the Liberty, which brings us to the Aces' Stokes/Clark dilemma. In the four games against the Liberty without Parker, Stokes played 64 minutes. She scored zero points on 0 of 4 from the field, grabbed 14 rebounds and was a minus-47. While Clark fared slightly better, she recorded just 19 points on 8-of-24 shooting, pulled down 14 rebounds and was a minus-21 in her 99 minutes.
Stokes is a non-shooter whom the Liberty will not respect on offense, which will allow them to send extra attention to Wilson and clog the paint. On the other end, they'll spread the floor and dare Stokes to guard on the perimeter, where she's not as comfortable. Most teams don't have two bigs as mobile and versatile as the Liberty do, and they cause real issues for Stokes.
Clark is a better fit for this matchup, and will likely close games. She's a strong 3-point shooter -- though she didn't show it against the Liberty in the regular season -- and is a better matchup for guarding Stewart. However, when she's out there, the Aces are very small against a Liberty team that rebounds extremely well and loves to crash the offensive glass. She's also only played more than 25 minutes seven times all season, and there appears to be a concern about running the 36-year-old into the ground.
So what do the Aces do? They don't have a deep roster and Becky Hammon really only trusts six players, so at least one of them will be out there. The Stokes minutes, in particular, seem crucial to the series. She has really struggled against the Liberty and they'll have a chance to run it up when she's out there. If she can hold her own, that's a big boost for the Aces.
Will the Liberty dare to play a zone if they can't keep the Aces in front?
The Liberty were one of the better defensive teams in the regular season, finishing third at 99.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. They have something of an unbalanced defense, however, and there are weak spots where you can get at them, particularly on the perimeter.
Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot have had trouble keeping opponents out of the lane during the playoffs, which is a major reason why they've allowed 25 shots per game inside of the restricted area -- second-most of any team. And while Jonquel Jones and Stewart are two of the best rim protectors and help defenders around -- which is why opponents are shooting well below the league average at 58.7% on those attempts -- they cannot get to everything. The volume quickly adds up.
At various points in the semifinals, most notably Game 2, the Liberty began using a zone, and even a triangle-and-two at times to keep the Sun out of the paint. After playing just 88 total possessions of zone defense in the regular season, the Liberty played 42 against the Sun. They held them to just 0.881 points per possession, which helped swing the series in their favor.
They were able to do so, though, because the Sun were often playing with two non-shooters on the floor, and were not a heavy 3-point shooting team. That won't be true against the Aces, who finished second in the league in the regular season in both attempts per game (24.9) and percentage (37.2). Wilson didn't shoot many 3s this season, but the only member of their rotation who won't look at the basket from outside is Stokes.
In addition to being a willing and capable outside shooting team, the Aces also have multiple guards who are adept at getting into the paint in Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young. While All-Defensive honoree Betnijah Laney will be able to handle one of them, that leaves Ionescu and Vandersloot with a difficult task. If neither are able to keep their marks from getting into the paint and collapsing the defense, will Sandy Brondello dare to switch to a zone scheme against the Aces?
On the one hand, the zone accentuates the Liberty's defensive strengths of size, athleticism and work rate. On the other, it will give teams opportunities from behind the arc, and the Aces are much more liable to make you pay in a more serious way than the Sun could. The perimeter battle, and how the Liberty respond if it's not going their way, will be fascinating to watch.
Jonquel Jones is the X-factor
In Game 4 of the semifinals against her former team, the Connecticut Sun, Jones decided that the Liberty were not going to lose. She put the team on her back down the stretch, coming up with a number of clutch plays on both ends of the floor, and finished with 25 points, 15 rebounds and four blocks to join Lisa Leslie as one of two players in league history with multiple 25-point, 15-rebound playoff games.
That incredible performance continued a notable trend this season; when Jones shows up and asserts herself, the Liberty almost never lose. Between the regular season and playoffs, the Liberty are 17-1 when Jones takes at least 10 field goal attempts, 16-1 when she has a double-double, 11-1 when she has at least 15 points and 24-5 when she scores in double figures.
No other team can match the talent and size in the Liberty's frontcourt, and Stewart is always going to be a focal point of any opponent's defensive efforts. That means Jones will almost always have a mismatch, but neither she nor the team take advantage of that fact. There are times Jones will float through games, but there are also times where the Liberty seemingly forget she's on their team.
Neither can happen against the Aces if the Liberty want to win this series. Jones, to her credit, has been much more forceful on both ends of the floor in the first two rounds of the playoffs, where she's averaged 16.5 points, 12.8 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. She leads all players in playoff rebounding, is third in blocks and is one of three players to average a double-double.
There's a reason Jones is a former league MVP, and when she's playing at that level it gives the Liberty an edge that most teams cannot overcome -- Aces included.
Prediction
The only downside of getting the matchup that everyone has been waiting for all season long, is that it makes for an extremely difficult prediction. You have to weigh so many different factors:
- How much does the Aces' home-court advantage matter? Including the Commissioner's Cup, they've only lost twice at home all season, but one of those defeats was to the Liberty.
- Do you favor precedent or current form? Without Candace Parker, the Liberty went 3-1 against the Aces in the final months of the season and all of their wins were comfortable. But during the playoffs, the Aces have clearly looked like the better team.
- From there, how much do you weigh the difference in opponents? Are the Aces actually playing better basketball, or did they just have a much easier path? They played the two worst defensive teams in the playoffs, while the Liberty played two of the best.
- Statistically, there's not much to separate these teams, who were at or near the top in most categories. The Aces are a better defensive team overall, take better care of the ball and get to the line more often. The Liberty have better ball movement, are much better at offensive rebounding and shoot more 3s.
- In terms of depth, the Liberty clearly have the better bench, as we saw in the Commissioner's Cup championship, when Marine Johannes swung the game. However, it's not clear how much that will really matter in this series. Both teams have largely been going only six deep when it matters, with Kayla Thornton coming off the bench for the Liberty and Clark doing the same for the Aces.
The safe pick is just to take the Aces. They're the defending champions, have home-court advantage and have been the best team in the league this season. From a betting perspective, the value is on the Liberty, who have +165 odds, but possess the talent to win the series.
I've hemmed and hawed over this for probably too long considering my prediction doesn't really matter. In the end I've decided to go with the Liberty in an extremely close series, because I think they are a real matchup problem for an Aces team without Parker. Pick: Liberty in 5
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