Just like Rory McIlroy brought an air of gravity to the unofficial opening day on the European Tour last week in Abu Dhabi, Tiger Woods will do the same on the PGA Tour at the Farmers Insurance Open this week. Woods will be surrounded by more great players than McIlroy a week ago, but his own star obviously shines many times brighter.

We've been here before, though. In fact, exactly one year ago, we were preparing for the same week and for the same return. That one lasted all of three rounds before Woods went back on the shelf. This one, well, feels different. But it might not be. 

Woods had his back fused together in April 2017 and next appeared at the Hero World Challenge in December where he finished T9 with Matt Kuchar. He missed the cut at Torrey Pines last year, but he has also won on this course eight different times, including a U.S. Open.

So as you can see, there are a number of different, seemingly contrary, factors in play when it comes to trying to analyze how the Big Cat is going to fare this week in La Jolla. With all that in mind, let's tentatively lay out some best, worst and most likely scenarios for how Woods' first tournament in 2018 unfolds.

Worst-case scenario: It's certainly not a missed cut or last-place finish. The absolute worst-case scenario for Woods this week is having to withdraw like he did this time last year. That would be a devastating blow to his comeback and could reignite the whispers of, "Maybe it's all over."

Best-case scenario: Woods can contend to win the tournament this week. I truly believe that. He knows this course well (like saying Tom Brady knows what the Lamar Hunt Trophy looks like), he'll be a little juiced up and he's already knocked at least a little of the rust off last month.

Don't take my word for it, though. Brooks Koepka's coach Claude Harmon recently saw Woods playing in Florida, and he told Tim Rosaforte of Golf Channel he looked genuinely terrific.

"Tiger looks unbelievable," Harmon said. "The first time I've seen it up close, I was blown away at how good it was… [I'd] be shocked if Tiger's not winning this year and shocked if he didn't give himself a chance at Augusta."

Harmon later told Golf Digest basically the same thing and noted the difference between Tiger now and Tiger's other comebacks. Hank Haney said recently that he expects a top-10 finish depending on his Woods' short game looks.

So there's that.

Most-likely scenario: I've adjusted my baseline for what to expect from Woods following what he did at the Hero World Challenge. He can contend, and we should expect him to make cuts early on. Based on that information, I think the most-likely scenario is that Woods makes the cut, shoots something like 71-73 on the weekend and finishes T24 or T19. 

This would be seen as a success by most people who haven't been following closely. But if you have been, and you watched what I watched in the Bahamas, this would simply be the status quo. It would be another checkpoint along the path back to greatness for Tiger Woods.