Elite talent is all over Duke's roster, but oddsmakers have extremely high expectations for Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Co. when NC State comes to Cameron Indoor Stadium at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday evening. The Blue Devils are favored by 17 points in the latest Duke vs. NC State odds, with the over-under for total points at 160, up a point from the opening line. No. 2 Duke is rolling through conference play, but the Wolfpack (18-7, 6-6) have been playing better recently and come into this matchup with consecutive wins, including one over Syracuse -- the only ACC team that has beaten Duke. And before making any Duke vs. NC State picks of your own, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine's proven model.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 15 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 99-67 run on top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has locked in on the Duke vs. NC State spread and crunched the numbers. We can tell you model is leaning to the under, and it has also generated a point-spread selection that hits well over 50 percent of the time. That pick is available at SportsLine.
The model has taken Duke's incredible run through the 2018-19 season into account. At 22-2 overall and 10-1 in the ACC, the Blue Devils sit on top of the ACC standings and at No. 2 overall in the standings. A win, combined with a loss by No. 1 Tennessee at Kentucky on Saturday evening, would likely vault the Blue Devils back to No. 1 overall.
With multiple likely NBA lottery picks on the roster, Duke has been strong both straight-up and against the spread. The Blue Devils are 15-9 ATS overall, 8-5 at home and 13-9 as the favorite. They're regularly met lofty standards thanks to an offense that averages 86.1 points per game and a defense that holds opponents to 65.6 points per game.
But just because the Blue Devils are absolutely loaded with talent, doesn't mean they will cover the Duke vs. NC State spread on Saturday.
For NC State on Saturday, one huge advantage should be its ability to crash the glass offensively. The Wolfpack have a guard and wing-heavy rotation, but they still attack the offensive boards extremely effectively and that's a weakness for Duke despite its size edge. NC State grabs 37.0 percent of their own misses, which is the 11th-best mark in the nation while Duke ranks 257th in nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
Torin Dorn is one of the best rebounding guards in the nation and he'll be a major factor on the glass in this one, as will D.J. Funderburk and Wyatt Walker in the front court. If Duke allows second-chance opportunities to NC State, it could be a tough ask for them to cover.
Who wins Duke vs. North Carolina State? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over Saturday, all from the model that has returned more than $5,000 to $100 players the last two years.
