Just five teams from last year's Elite Eight remain in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, and two of them will square off in the Sweet 16 on Thursday evening. The No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks with another Elite Eight berth on the line. Gonzaga (28-3) won the West Coast Conference regular season and overcame a double-digit deficit to knock off Memphis in the second round. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks (27-8) finished fourth in the SEC and used their strong defense to upend New Mexico State in the second round.
This will be the first meeting between the programs since 2013, when the Zags pulled off a 10-point regular-season win. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:09 p.m. ET on CBS from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs as 9.5-point favorites in the latest Gonzaga vs. Arkansas odds, while the over-under is set at 155.5. Before finalizing any Arkansas vs. Gonzaga picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $1,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Gonzaga vs. Arkansas and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Arkansas vs. Gonzaga:
- Gonzaga vs. Arkansas spread: Bulldogs -9.5
- Gonzaga vs. Arkansas over-under: 155.5 points
- Gonzaga vs. Arkansas money line: Bulldogs -550, Razorbacks +400
- GON: The Bulldogs are 0-4 against the spread in their last four NCAA Tournament games
- ARK: The Razorbacks are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 overall contests
Why Gonzaga can cover
While Arkansas' strength lies in its defense, Gonzaga is even better on that end of the court, ranking ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Zags also lead the nation in offensive efficiency, making them one of two teams in the country to rank in the top 10 of both. The potency of their offense has been on full display in the second halves of its tourney games. After overcoming slow starts, Gonzaga has averaged 54.5 second-half points during March Madness 2022, while Arkansas could only muster 53 total points in its last game.
Arkansas doesn't profile as the type of team that can stick with the Bulldogs considering how much the Razorbacks struggle from beyond the arc. They rank 66th out of 68 tournament teams in 3-point percentage, which means if they're faced with a big deficit, then they're not equipped to shoot their way back into the game. Additionally, Gonzaga has the best 2-point defense in the nation, so buckets should be hard to come by all over the court for the Hogs. Finally, history is on Gonzaga's side as No. 1 seeds have won each of the last nine NCAA Tournament games versus No. 4 seeds.
Why Arkansas can cover
The Razorbacks have been impressive since losing five of six games from Dec. 11-Jan. 8, winning 17 of their 20 games. During that stretch, they held 13 of their opponents below 40 percent field-goal shooting and 15 below 31 percent from 3-point range while outrebounding 13 foes. Jaylin Williams leads Arkansas with an average of 9.8 boards and came up with a huge performance against New Mexico State on Saturday, recording 15 -- including 13 on the defensive end.
The sophomore forward was one of only two Razorbacks to score in double figures against the Aggies, registering 10 points for his second straight double-double and 14th of the season. Arkansas went 22-for-25 from the free-throw line on Saturday and leads the nation with an average of 17.5 made foul shots. Chris Lykes went 7-for-7 against New Mexico State and is 9-for-9 in the NCAA Tournament 2022, while fellow senior guard JD Notae, who finished with a game-high 18 points and eight steals, went 7-for-8 from the line versus the Aggies.
How to make Arkansas vs. Gonzaga picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 157 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Gonzaga vs. Arkansas? And which side of the spread hits 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.