Five games featuring Division 1 men's college basketball teams are on the agenda for New Year's Day. One such matchup will take place at Moody Center in Austin, with the No. 21 Texas Longhorns taking on the UT Arlington Mavericks. Texas is 10-2 overall and on a four-game winning streak. UT Arlington is 6-6 on the road but looking for its first road win of the 2023-24 season.
Tipoff is at 2 p.m. ET in Austin. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Longhorns as 18.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 146.5 in the latest UT Arlington vs. Texas odds. Before making any Texas vs. UT Arlington picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 8 of the 2023-24 season on a 101-64 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $2,000 for $100 players. It is also off to a sizzling 11-3 start on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Texas vs. UT Arlington. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for UT Arlington vs. Texas:
- Texas vs. UT Arlington spread: Texas -18.5
- Texas vs. UT Arlington over/under: 46.5 points
- Texas vs. UT Arlington money line: Texas -2927, UTA +1263
- UTA: The Mavericks are 7-3 against the spread this season
- UT: The Longhorns are 4-8 against the spread this season
- Texas vs. UT Arlington picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why UT Arlington can cover
The Mavericks are led by 6'9 forward Shemar Wilson, who is one of the country's best rebounders. Wilson is averaging 8.8 rebounds per game, No. 2 in the WAC this season, and he has seven double-digit rebounding games already in 2023-24. Wilson is also averaging 13.9 points per game while shooting 53.8% from the field, and he is the central reason for UT Arlington's success on the offensive glass. The Mavericks are securing 32.9% of missed shots on offense, and UT Arlington also takes full advantage of the free throw line, creating more than 20 attempts per game and making 73.5% of shots at the stripe.
UT Arlington also shares the ball well, averaging 16.4 assists per game, and the Mavericks have strong metrics on defense. The Mavericks are blocking 9.7% of shot attempts and also grabbing more than 73% of available defensive rebounds. In this matchup, UT Arlington can also take advantage of Texas being below-average in free throw creation, and the Longhorns are committing a live-ball turnover on more than 10% of offensive possessions. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why Texas can cover
Texas has superior metrics on both sides of the floor in this matchup. The Longhorns are shooting 49.2% from the field and 73.5% at the free throw line this season, and Texas is also above-average in offensive rebounding, turnover prevention, and assists. Two-time Summit League Player of the Year Max Abmas leads the way for Texas, and UT Arlington is yielding more than 1.08 points per possession, ranking outside the top 250 nationally in defensive efficiency.
On the other end, Texas is tremendous, with the Longhorns giving up only 0.926 points per possession. That ranks in the top 20 of the country in defensive efficiency, and opponents are shooting only 39.4% from the field and 30.5% from 3-point distance against Texas. The Longhorns also force a turnover on more than 19% of defensive possessions and give up only 10.3 assists per game. In addition, UT Arlington is scoring less than a point per possession this season and committing 15.6 turnovers per contest. That places the Mavericks in the bottom 15 of the country in turnover prevention, and the Longhorns should also benefit from home-court advantage in Austin. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make UT Arlington vs. Texas picks
The model has simulated this matchup 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 80% of simulations. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Texas vs. UT Arlington, and which side of the spread hits nearly 80% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 101-64 roll on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.
