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The Big 12 Championship Game is guaranteed to have a first-time winner when the No. 5-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the No. 9-ranked Baylor Bears on Saturday at AT&T Stadium. The winner, especially if it is Oklahoma State, will have a chance to reach the College Football Playoffs and will also bring home the first conference title since the Big 12 adopted a championship game in 2017. Oklahoma has won all four of the other Big 12 title games, but the Cowboys (11-1, 8-1) and Bears (9-2, 7-2) both beat the Sooners this year to knock them out of contention for a fifth consecutive title.

Kickoff is set for noon ET. The latest Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds from Caesars Sportsbook list the Cowboys as 6.5-point favorites. The over-under for total points is set at 45.5. Before making any Baylor vs. Oklahoma State picks in the 2021 Big 12 Championship Game, be sure to check out the CFB predictions and college football betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Championship Week 2021 on a 42-28 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Oklahoma State vs. Baylor from every angle and released its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: 

  • Oklahoma State vs. Baylor point spread: Oklahoma State -6,5
  • Oklahoma State vs. Baylor over-under total: 45.5 points 
  • Oklahoma State vs. Baylor money line: Oklahoma State -250, Baylor +205
  • OSU: The Cowboys have covered the spread in five straight neutral-site games 
  • BU: The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog
Featured Game | Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears

Why Oklahoma State can cover

The Cowboys have a chance to accomplish their most successful season under coach Mike Gundy, who took the helm in 2005. In 2011, they finished 12-1 and ranked No. 3 in the final AP poll following a Fiesta Bowl win over Andrew Luck and Stanford. The four-team playoff didn't exist then, nor did the Big 12 Championship Game. 

This year, the Cowboys traded their usually flashy offense for an efficient one and the foundation of their success lies in a defense that had long prevented the program from competing for the conference and national titles. They led the Big 12 with a scoring defensive average of 16.4 points per game and the unit held up well enough to fend off rival Oklahoma 37-33 last week. 

The Cowboys trailed 33-24 entering the fourth quarter and held the Sooners scoreless while mounting two touchdown drives. Junior quarterback Spencer Sanders threw two interceptions but otherwise had an efficient outing. He scored on a 37-yard run in the fourth quarter and finished with 214 passing yards and another score. 

Why Baylor can cover

It stands to reason the presence of dual-threat quarterback Gerry Bohanon would give the Bears a better chance, and the early signs are encouraging. The junior has reportedly practiced this week without restriction after suffering a hamstring injury two weeks ago. Even so, Baylor is equipped to succeed without him, if necessary.

Freshman backup Blake Shapen threw for 254 yards with no turnovers in a must-win game against Texas Tech last week. Although he does not provide the running threat of Bohanon, who is the team's third-leading rusher, the Bears have perhaps the conference's top backfield to rely on. The Bears lead the Big 12 with 230 rushing yards per contest.

Senior Abram Smith leads the way with 1,366 yards on 215 carries with 12 touchdowns. He came up big with 117 yards on 30 carries with a score against the Red Raiders. Fellow senior Trestan Ebner provides a change of pace with 746 yards on 137 carries with two scores. 

How to make Oklahoma State vs. Baylor picks 

The model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 44 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Big 12 Championship Game pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Oklahoma State vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Oklahoma State vs. Baylor spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.